The Foreign Service Journal, March 2010

M A R C H 2 0 1 0 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 35 immediate issues to the eventual drawdown of U.S. forces and influ- ence in Iraq, which posed a prob- lem — and an opportunity — for Turkey. Various developments helped the Turks reconcile themselves to the prospect of an autonomous Iraqi Kurdish entity in the north. Parallel efforts by U.S. diplomats may have helped KRG leaders see that cultivating cooperation with Ankara could be im- portant, perhaps vital, to their longer-term interests given other problems they faced. Mutual trade and investment interests furthered such thinking. A final factor may have been concern about Iranian ambitions in Iraq and region- ally. While having no interest in confrontation with Iran, Turkish officials wanted to project more moderate and sta- bility-oriented influences that would, inter alia, bolster the role of Turkey and like-minded countries in the region. Although this article focuses on the problem of Iraq in U.S.-Turkish relations, it is worth noting that Pres. Bush’s change of policy on the PKK also helped, at least indirectly, to unlock a new ap- proach to Turkey’s internal Kurdish issues in 2008-2009. The govern- ment’s effort has been tentative and encountered setbacks, but hope- fully will succeed in drawing more Kurds into the mainstream. Looking Forward Potential problems lie ahead in Iraq, in Turkey-Iraq relations and in our own dealings with Turkey on Iraq. • One issue is the U.S. redeployment out of Iraq. Transiting material through Turkey en route to Europe and the United States would save money and time. • Elections and the formation of a new Iraqi govern- ment in 2010 will be difficult. Al-Qaida is still very active, even as problems in Kirkuk remain unresolved. Violent F O C U S The eventual drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq poses a problem — and an opportunity — for Turkey.