The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2009

J U LY- A U G U S T 2 0 0 9 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 11 Historically, PD under secretaries have stayed no more than a year at the job; but in welcoming her confirmation, Senator Richard Lugar, R-Ind., stated he was hopeful Ms. McHale would “buck this trend” ( http://lugar.sen ate.gov/sfrc/diplomacy.html ). In related developments, the Sen- ate also unanimously passed Sen. Lugar’s resolution, S. Res. 49, which calls for the Secretary of State to look into the re-establishment of publicly accessible American Centers around the world. And on May 27, the Gov- ernment Accountability Office issued a report, “U.S. Public Diplomacy: Key Issues for Congressional Oversight,” to highlight concerns that need to be ad- dressed in a new comprehensive com- munication strategy ( www.gao.gov ) . — Susan Brady Maitra, Senior Editor Carnegie Grant for Scenarios Initiative The Scenarios Initiative at the New York University School of Continuing and Professional Studies’ Center for Global Affairs received a $250,000 grant from the Carnegie Corporation foundation to support the program’s mediated workshop series testing al- ternative U.S. policies on China, Rus- sia, Turkey and the Ukraine ( www. scps.nyu.edu/about-scps/news room/news/2009/05/carnegie- grant-to-cga-scenarios-initiative. html ). These countries are expected to be critical to U.S. interests over the next 10 years, either as rivals, collabo- rators or potential vectors of conflict. The Scenarios Initiative is “de- signed to engage foreign policymakers directly in the scenario-building and policy-testing process, thus adding real value to policy deliberations. Our pro- gram also involves global and expert participation to minimize mirror imag- ing and policy or cultural bias,” says Clinical Associate Professor Michael Oppenheimer, who leads the initiative. The workshops and reports are built around a pressing issue or pivotal country that combines great impor- tance to U.S. interests with high vari- ability and uncertainty. The 10 to 15 invited participants discuss three or four possible scenarios that could arise within the area of focus. The group then builds out each of them, explor- ing relevant political, economic, cul- tural and global forces at play; critical, game-changing events; and possible responses by state and non-state actors. In 2007, the center imagined the future of Iraq after a substantial draw- down of U.S. forces in 2010, and in 2008 it examined the future of Iran and its relationship with other Middle East actors. These reports are available online at www.scps.nyu.edu/cga . — Susan Brady Maitra, Senior Editor Changing Tides for Cuba Even before news broke in early June of the arrest of former State De- partment employee Walter Kendall Myers, who allegedly spied for Cuba for three decades, a flurry of activity pointed to a full-blown sea change in U.S.-Cuban diplomatic relations ( www. reuters.com/article/companyNews AndPR/idUSN0952878320090409 ). In April and May, President Barack Obama eased remittance and travel re- strictions for Cubans in America and reopened talks on migration. And in June, the Organization of American States repealed the 1962 resolution that had barred Cuba from its ranks and established a path for reintegration ( www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm? pageID=32&pubID=1976 ). Interest in change is being ex- pressed on many fronts — from grass- roots movements in Miami, Fla., to politicians like Representatives Frank Wolf, R-Va., and Chris Smith, R-N.J., and Senator Richard Lugar, R-Ind. In deciding the breadth and depth of actions to be taken, however, the U.S. faces a series of delicate consider- ations. Our lack of communication with, and understanding of the situa- tion of, Cubans begs the question: Will opening the doors with Havana bolster the oppressive regime, or will it show the power of open dialogue to spread democratic values? At the very least, American citizens agree with numerous commentators on one point: the U.S. sanctions have failed, and the policy must change. A recent joint poll by YouGovPollimetrix and The Economist revealed that 45 percent of Americans favor re-estab- lishing diplomatic ties with Havana, with 23 percent opposing. EvenCuban-Americans, more heav- ily invested in democratic outcomes in Cuba, seem to approve of moves to- ward greater diplomatic ties. Accord- ing to a Bendixen & Associates poll, 64 percent of Cuban-Americans approve of Pres. Obama’s decision to loosen restrictions on travel to the island” ( www.economist.com/ ) . Certainly most reporting coming from Cuba, often in the pages of the party newspaper, Granma , suggests that Raúl Castro’s reforms are fleeting, petty and covertly repressive ( www. granma.cu/ ) . Leader-turned-blogger Fidel Castro, writing on his brother’s seemingly conciliatory gestures, insists in his blog ( Reflections of Comrade Fidel ) that, “when the president of Cuba said he was ready to discuss any topic with the U.S. president, he meant he was not afraid of addressing C Y B E R N O T E S