The Foreign Service Journal, September 2004

Howard and his wife were slandered and abused, but both stayed the course until the president was suc- cessfully recalled and board member Pat Woodring took the helm, again thanks to Howard’s behind-the- scenes actions. And for the first time in AFSA history, the organization had a female president. Howard’s deeds were done with no thought of acclamation. His keen mind and great legal abilities were extremely useful at this traumatic time in AFSA’s history. The associa- tion should recognize this great con- tribution, for it might not have sur- vived without the contributions of someone like Howard Myers. Roy A. Harrell Jr. Life Member of AFSA FSO, retired Ozona, Texas Praise for INR There has been much to-do about the CIA’s failure regarding pre-Iraq war intelligence. The June FSJ (“INR’s Track Record Highlighted,” Cybernotes) reports a Washington Post article praising the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research as the best among the U.S. government’s intelligence ser- vices, pointing to INR’s more cau- tious analysis of bomb damage in Vietnam, the trouble admitting the Iranian shah to the U.S. for medical treatment might entail, and the probable outcome of a U.S. invasion of Iraq. Intelligence is always based on imperfect knowledge and the judg- ment of analysts — in effect reading straws in the wind. But your Cybernotes article puts me in mind of another experience in which INR clearly outshone the competition. Back in 1973 when I was deputy director of the Office of Economic Research and Analysis, our team produced a report cautioning that the Arab oil producers were moving toward the creation of an oil cartel and that the U.S. might expect an oil embargo within the next few months as a tool for raising oil prices signifi- cantly, thus enriching the coffers of the oil-producing countries. Exer- cising his “discretion,” the assistant secretary for INR refused to approve the paper for distribution because he regarded it as “alarmist” and anyway, “every economist knows that cartels don’t work” (though the Saudis apparently didn’t know that, and the economists of the world may have a different opinion now, 35 years later). Anyway, three weeks later, after the public announcement of OPEC’s formation had taken place and there were long lines waiting to fill up at gas stations across the country, I got a call requesting the paper. The front office did a little editing, and we were the first agency in govern- ment to come out with an analysis of the probable effects of OPEC on the world economy and the cost to America. I’ve always wondered whether being first in the field with an accu- rate prediction would have made any difference. Intelligence is always imperfect. I’m not sure whether more accurate information from the CIA would have been any more believable than its misplaced confidence that Iraq actually had WMDs rather than merely the tech- nology to produce them. But based on my experience working with DIA and CIA officers, I think David Ignatius’ assessment that INR is the best of the pack is right on target. I have fond memories of my colleagues and two years in INR. This is another example of an assignment that is often disdained by regular FSOs, but which can be high- ly rewarding — and which didn’t hold up my next promotion or a choice assignment overseas following my INR experience. David Timmins FSO, retired Professor of Economics, Brigham Young University Salt Lake City, Utah Grading Positions, Not Performance I am a human resources officer in Brasilia, and one of four certified “CAJE-ers” mission-wide. I read Alexis Ludwig’s article on the Computer Aided Job Evaluation process (“Liberating FSNs from Their ‘CAJE’”) in the April Journal and wonder how he reached some of the conclusions he did about its shortcom- ings. He states that “... the CAJE cal- culus implicitly assigns more value to the work done by the FSNs in the Admin/GSO fields ...” In fact, CAJE evaluates five areas: Knowledge, responsibility, intellectual skills/ communication, and working envi- ronment. None of these values advantages any position over anoth- er. For example, knowledge and communication combine to weigh 50 percent of a position’s overall “score.” Therefore, political assis- tants, by virtue of their advanced knowledge (gauged by education level, knowledge of the local political scene, etc.) and their highly-valued contacts (scored under communica- tion), would receive high CAJE rankings. My experience at this mis- sion bears that out. Mr. Ludwig goes on to say that “... unlike the personnel system for the rest of the Foreign Service, CAJE assigns rank to the position, not the person ...” No FS position is assigned a grade based on the incumbent’s per- formance or personal grade. Positions are graded by the needs of the job, and the incumbent is assigned to fulfill those needs, not vice-versa. It is true 12 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 4 L E T T E R S