12 JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2026 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Analysts caution that while the White House sought to emphasize economic and security cooperation, several key Saudi priorities, such as a nuclear cooperation agreement, remain unresolved, and congressional skepticism toward MBS persists across party lines. COP30 Concludes with Divisions Over Fossil Fuels The 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP30), held in Belém, Brazil, on November 10–21, 2025, ended with one of the most divisive conclusions in the conference’s three-decade history. Framed as a summit of implementation, the meeting focused on translating existing climate commitments into concrete action. But the final agreement, made up of 29 formal decisions known as the Belém Package, exposed stark fractures over the future of global climate governance. The Trump administration did not participate in the summit. California Governor Gavin Newsom emerged as the highest-ranking U.S. official at COP30, using the platform to sharply criticize President Donald Trump’s absence and his administration’s rollback of climate policies. Newsom condemned newly reported plans to open California’s coastline to oil and gas drilling, saying such efforts would be “dead on arrival.” Leading an alternate U.S. delegation of more than 100 state and local officials, Newsom argued that Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and support for expanded fossil fuel production undermine both U.S. credibility and economic competitiveness, handing a strategic advantage to China in clean-energy manufacturing. He also urged subnational leaders to “assert ourselves” in the vacuum left by the federal government, viewing local action as essential to maintaining U.S. climate leadership. Brazil’s presidency secured a deal that triples adaptation finance by 2035, adopts 59 global indicators to measure progress under the Global Goal on Adaptation, launches a Global Implementation Accelerator for NDC (nationally determined contributions) delivery, and establishes a new Just Transition Mechanism to support countries facing social and economic risks from decarbonization. COP30 also unveiled major forest and maritime initiatives. Yet divisions over fossil fuels dominated the summit. More than 80 delegates, including those from Colombia, Panama, Uruguay, and the European Trump Welcomes Saudi Crown Prince President Donald Trump hosted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) at the White House on November 18, 2025, offering an elaborate welcome that included a military flyover, red-carpet ceremony, and an evening black-tie dinner attended by U.S. business leaders. It was MBS’ first visit to Washington since the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. President Trump announced that the United States would proceed with the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia and confirmed Riyadh’s new designation as a major non-NATO ally. U.S. officials also highlighted new cooperation on AI infrastructure, civil nuclear energy, and the release of advanced Nvidia chips to Saudi firms. MBS, for his part, pledged to increase planned Saudi investments in the United States from $600 billion toward $1 trillion—though some critics pointed to the fact that the country’s entire GDP is just $1.24 trillion. According to Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Program, many of the deals touted during the trip are preliminary or symbolic, with significant details still to be negotiated. Analysts note that the most tangible outcome for MBS may be reputational: a highly visible return to the White House after years of strained ties, complete with presidential praise and a public reaffirmation of the U.S.-Saudi partnership. Human rights concerns remained a point of tension, with reporters pressing both leaders on Khashoggi’s killing and broader rights issues documented in the State Department’s 2024 country report. Trump defended the crown prince and criticized media questioning, while MBS called the journalist’s death “painful” and “a huge mistake.” As we go to press, the Trump administration released its new National Security Strategy (NSS) on December 4, 2025, sharply redefining U.S. foreign policy and elevating the Western Hemisphere as Washington’s top priority in what it terms a “Trump Corollary” to the 1823 Monroe Doctrine. Early analysis from experts at the nonpartisan Council on Foreign Relations and Brookings suggests that the NSS abandons the previous framework of “great-power competition” with China and Russia, instead casting economics as the “ultimate stakes” and treating China primarily as an economic competitor. Initial criticism indicates the strategy is more ideological manifesto than road map and lacks the focus on a rules-based international order contained in past NSS documents. The full strategy document is available at https://bit.ly/25NSS. NSS: A Radical Reordering of U.S. Strategy
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