The Foreign Service Journal, January 2009

38 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / J A N U A R Y 2 0 0 9 and analysts have an answer to the question of how we protect our very real interests in the Middle East during that fraught and unsta- ble short-term and medium-term period of a democratic transition, we’re always going to back away when people we don’t like get elected.” The Community of Democracies has already disap- pointed many activists. Since its founding, it has inspired a Democracy Caucus that meets annually at the United Nations, and it also helped establish the U.N. Democracy Fund, which aids efforts like election monitoring. But many experts have remarked on the lack of solidarity among the club in areas like human rights enforcement. They also point to the group’s failure to speak out against attacks on democracy or even to issue praise for countries that have made progress. Developing-world democracies like South Africa, India and the Philippines have often voted against Western states on human rights issues at the United Nations. In the Middle East, autocracies remain dominant. Ex- perts based in the United States see little tangible im- provement as a result of the Bush administration’s freedom agenda. “Neither incumbent regimes nor reform advo- cates believe any longer that the United States is seeking the democratic transformation of the region,” wrote Ma- rina Ottaway, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Mid- dle East program, in a June 2008 paper. “Credibility will not be restored by new rhetoric but by consistent efforts to promote attainable goals.” Yet few advocate abandoning the effort altogether. Another area of concern has been the stalled progress of democratic reforms in the non-Baltic former Soviet states. Russia under Vladimir Putin has steadily rolled back political and press freedoms since he became presi- dent in 1999, and his successor, Dmitry Medvedev, shows no signs of reversing those trends. Moscow’s brief war with Georgia this past August and its recognition of separatist regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states have raised alarms about an end to reforms in the country and region. Meanwhile, the Georgian administration of President Mikheil Saakashvili, while widely credited with expediting economic reforms and tackling corruption, also raised con- cerns about heavy-handedness against its political opposi- tion. And Ukraine remains mired in a dispute between its two Orange Revolution avatars, President Vik- tor Yushchenko and Prime Minis- ter Yulia Timoshenko, leaving it vulnerable to Russian pressures. Despite these setbacks, Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations credits the Bush admin- istration with spurring a substantial new public dialogue about democracy and freedom. “No longer could the regimes deflect demands for change, because the United States was [now] watching,” he says. “This allowed for the flowering of this debate about reform and questions of the sources of power and authenticity and legitimacy in these societies.” At a Crossroads While acknowledging setbacks, the Bush administra- tion has expressed pride in its promotion of the freedom agenda. In its final year it issued National Security Presi- dential Directive 58, codifying many of its policies as a guide to future administrations. These include the use of foreign aid to promote democratic development, support free trade and lead the effort to combat global hunger and disease. But in the waning months of Bush’s presidency, Re- publican, Democratic and nonpartisan foreign policy ex- perts alike have produced a number of reports calling for an overhaul of the Bush approach. Their recommenda- tions include the following: • Draw a distinction between regime change and democracy promotion, making clear the United States does not use military force to remove governments in the name of democracy; • Establish more modest goals for bolstering democ- racy in a limited number of states; • Take steps to improve coordination on democracy promotion across the numerous U.S. agencies involved in related work; • Renew engagement in the Community of Democra- cies as a forum for strengthening democratic institutions and increasing involvement with existing multilateral bod- ies that deal with democracy, such as the United Nations; • Emphasize strengthening of governance and rule of law over the holding of elections in countries in transition; and F O C U S The Bush administration has expressed pride in its promotion of the freedom agenda.