The Foreign Service Journal, January 2010

Follow the Money: The Shape of the World in 2050 Though its September summit in Pittsburgh proved a relatively low-key event, the Group of 20 is steadily emerging as the world’s official forum on global economic matters, replacing the Group of Eight (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Britain, the U.S., Canada and Russia). By most accounts, this is as it should be. A recent study in the Carnegie En- dowment for International Peace’s In- ternational Economics Bulletin pre- dicts that by 2032 China will become the world’s largest economy, growing 20 percent larger than the United States by 2050. Over the next 40 years, nearly 60 percent of the world’s growth will come fromBrazil, China, India, Russia and Mexico alone. Though as a group these emerging markets will increasingly define eco- nomic dynamics, they will not be the world’s richest in per capita terms: their average per capita income in 2050 will still be some 40 percent below that of the G-8 (minus Russia) today. As the IEB notes, the emergence of the G-20 signals the beginning of a more inte- grated and complex economic era. The Group of 20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors was founded in 1999 as a response both to the financial crises of the late 1990s and a growing recognition that key emerg- ing-market countries were not ade- quately represented in the global economic discussion and governance. The group includes the G-8 plus Ar- gentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the European Union. Over the past decade, the G-20 has worked through five groups to develop consensus on a range of issues, includ- ing setting policies for growth, reduc- ing abuse of the financial system, dealing with financial crises and com- bating terrorist financing. The group also plays a significant role in matters concerned with reform of the interna- tional financial architecture. The ongoing world economic crisis is testing the group’s effectiveness. At summits in April and September, the G-20 committed themselves to steps to restore economic growth, fix the bro- ken regulatory system and introduce reforms to prevent future destabiliza- tion. The Pittsburgh summit saw adop- tion of a framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth, and a follow-up communiqué from London in early November reported continued progress toward implementation of the plans. The next G-20 meeting, in June, will take place in Canada. Taking On Cyberwarfare At a Nov. 17 hearing, the Senate Ju- diciary Committee’s Terrorism and Homeland Security Subcommittee heard testimony from public and pri- vate experts on the state of U.S. cyber- security, “one of the most important subjects —and frankly one of the most complicated subjects — that Congress and the Obama administration must address in the coming months,” as Sub- committee Chairman Benjamin L. Cardin, D-Md., put it in his opening statement. The administration’s “comprehen- sive, clean-slate review” of the topic in May came to the alarming conclusion that “the federal government is not or- ganized to address this growing prob- lem effectively now or in the future.” Responsibilities for cybersecurity are distributed across a wide array of fed- eral departments and agencies, many with overlapping jurisdiction, and none have sufficient authority to direct ac- tions that deal with these complex is- sues in a consistent way. A successful cyberattack could cripple sectors of our government, economy and essential services. Over the past several years, inci- dents involving Beijing, in particular, have acted to push cyberwarfare up on the national security agenda. At the hearing, prominent government and J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 0 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 9 C YBERNOTES