The Foreign Service Journal, January 2012

I joined the Foreign Service 55 years ago, and retired from it 16 years ago. While that clearly dis- qualifies me from speaking about today’s Service, perhaps I am no less qualified than anyone else to talk about the next 50 years. The future, of course, is unknow- able. Fifty-five years ago, no one could have foreseen the degree to which in- stant electronic communication, in the form of computers and cell phones, has changed the environment in which we operate today. Yet there was probably more basis for predicting that, at least among the scientifically and technolog- ically inclined, than there was for pre- dicting the complete and utter dis- appearance of the Soviet bloc that so dominated world politics in 1956. That said, there are some trends that may perhaps give us some clue about the world in which newly minted Foreign Service members today will serve their careers. My first observation, and the most obvious — I promise I will be more provocative later on — is that the United States is no longer one of two superpowers, as it was when I joined the Service, or even the sole super- power that it seemed briefly to be after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I see that becoming even truer over the next 50 years. We may remain the world’s single strongest military and economic power, but we will no longer be overwhelmingly the strongest. What is more, we can no longer af- ford to be. Although politicians will continue to blather about the United States being the greatest country on earth, that will be an increasingly qual- itative rather than quantitative claim. I believe the United States has reached the limit of its ability to project and ex- ercise power internationally. We have for many years neglected our infra- structure, our environment and the need for cleaner, cheaper energy, and paid for our international adventures by borrowing. My sense is that the will- ingness of the American people to put up with this inversion of priorities has reached its limits. Am I suggesting that the Foreign Service will fade into irrelevance as Fortress America turns away from the rest of the world? Not at all. Regard- less of which party is in power and what policies the U.S. government adopts, we are inextricably involved with the world, and will become much more so over the next half-century. That’s driven both by technology and by the nature of the issues. A Shrinking World Technology will continue to shrink the world in ways we can only specu- late on today. Conversations via Skype, or its descendants, with friends and business partners and Foreign Service colleagues will certainly become the normal, everyday means of communi- cation. National stock markets are al- ready international in content; it’s but a step to being able to invest in any com- pany, anywhere. This means, as is apparent in any news report today, that the health of every major country’s economy is inter- twined with the health of our own. Re- porting on, negotiating and advancing those economic relationships will be as much a major part of diplomatic work 50 years from now as it is today. Moreover, the issues facing the world’s leaders will require more and more international cooperation. Who builds wind farms and oil wells in whose oceans. Whose greenhouse gases diminish the quality of whose air — and contribute to the loss of whose seacoast. Who regulates, and who pro- tects, the Internet. How to divide a limited bandwidth for a steadily in- creasing traffic of international com- munications and entertainment — The Next 50 Years B Y G EORGE F. J ONES S PEAKING O UT There will always be work for the Foreign Service. But it will not become an “expeditionary” Service. J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 2 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 13