The Foreign Service Journal, January 2013

32 JANUARY 2013 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL cated, multiplying the missions of these agencies. The military has withdrawn from Iraq and its mission in Afghanistan will change in less than two years. At the same time, there have been organizational and other changes in State and USAID, generated by the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. And above all, the for- eign affairs budget (150 Account) faces unrelenting pressure for reduced funding as steps are taken to trim and eliminate the nation’s $1 trillion-plus annual deficits and accumulating total debt. This report measures the progress made in responding to State’s and USAID’s personnel crises since 2008. It analyzes personnel and resource requirements in the dramatically changed circumstances the foreign affairs agencies now confront; establishes a staffing baseline for the future; and provides a plan to realize the recommendations made for the Fiscal Year 2014-2018 budgets even in a time of increased budgetary stringency. The overarching goal is to ensure that America has the smart power capabilities to succeed in the missions assigned by the president and Secretary of State, buttressed by the most efficient use of national resources. Now, more than ever, the United States needs to be fully engaged in all areas of the world—and to achieve this will require a broad, bipartisan effort. The better the shield, the less often the sword is required. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Conclusions American diplomacy is in a worldwide transition driven by dramatic change. The tectonic plates of international power are shifting. Asia, led by China and India, gains in importance and influence, while Europe, confronted by major structural and fiscal imbalances, weakens. Regional powers such as Brazil and Turkey have emerged. The opportunities and chal- lenges of globalization, from the Arab Spring to failed states and continuing terrorism, multiply. Meanwhile, the United States military has withdrawn from Iraq and their presence in Afghanistan will shrink in less than two years. Congress and the public have little appetite for military intervention of the “boots on the ground” variety. In the near term, the American military will be in retrenchment mode. The Department of State and USAID are also undergoing internal structural changes as a result of Secretary Clinton’s Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. New bureaus and other offices are being added to integrate the development budget, to emphasize economic and energy developments, and to redirect the stabilization function. All these changes are creating additional missions for the inherently labor-intensive work of conducting diplomacy and the delivery of foreign assistance. This, in turn, generates a requirement for additional personnel and new skill sets. The final major change in the transition, however, is the strong countervailing pressure of America’s fiscal problems. At $16 trillion, our total national debt already exceeds gross domestic product, and continues to rise: The last four annual budget deficits have each added more than a trillion dollars to the total. At $4 billion, direct personnel costs for the State Department and USAID are only slightly more than 7 percent of the total foreign affairs operating budget. Even a drastic reduction in staff positions will not seriously reduce the budget; and, by the same token, increasing staffing as recommended in this report will raise it only marginally.