The Foreign Service Journal, February 2007

Republicans’ firm control in 1995, the Democrats’ majority in the Senate is razor-thin; even their control of the House of Representatives is not nec- essarily strong enough to pass legisla- tion, let alone to override a presiden- tial veto. Still, it seems reasonable to expect some changes in U.S. foreign policy, if only on the margins, during the remaining two years of the Bush administration. What remains to be seen is how extensive they will be, and whether they will mainly be the prod- uct of congressional pressure or tacti- cal decisions by the White House. (It already appears clear that the Iraq Study Group’s report, released with great fanfare just days after the midterm elections, will not have any lasting effect on the administration’s think- ing about the war.) With all that in mind, this issue of the Journal offers three articles examining different facets of what might lie ahead. In “Foreign Policy in the 110th Congress” (p. 22), George Cahlink, a reporter for Congressional Quarterly , gives us a detailed overview of what the two main Democratic foreign policymakers — Rep. Tom Lantos, D-Calif., and Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del. — might do with their respective committees. As he notes, the two chairmen bring substantially different perspectives, tem- peraments and agendas to their jobs, but both will have to contend with fractious colleagues and a minority party that may not want to play ball. A View from the Left … Following Shakespeare’s dictum that “What is past is prologue,” retired Ambassador Dennis Jett forecasts “A Bleak Outlook” (p. 28) as he analyzes how historians will evaluate President Bush’s record. He bases that predic- tion on how catastrophically the very decision Jett asserts did the most to win the president a second term— invad- ing Iraq four years ago — has unfolded. Whether or not one concurs that the war was mainly intended to bolster the administration’s domestic for- tunes, there is little doubt that it did so— at least through the 2004 elections. Many critics might view the way the policy’s short-term success has melted away since then as poetic justice, while others would see it as a noble sacrifice for the greater good (perhaps along the lines of the late President Ford’s pardon of his predecessor). Still, even if Jett’s conclusion is correct, it is not necessarily a certain- ty that the Bush administration will be completely stymied on the world stage during its remaining time in office. Two decades ago, Ronald Reagan scored several significant diplomatic achievements during his final two years in office, particularly in the arms control arena, even while grappling with the fallout of the Iran-Contra scandal and confronting an opposition-controlled Congress. … And from the Right Then there is the neoconservative view that despite some errors in execution, President Bush is pursuing “A Sound Strategy” (p. 29) in regard to waging the “war on terrorism” and the related goal of democratizing the Middle East. Joshua Muravchik, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, proudly identifies himself with that project, though he acknowledges that “Bush has gotten himself and our nation into trouble in Iraq. For that, he and those of us who extolled his actions deserve to take our lumps.” I suspect that few readers will disagree with that assessment. However, many will part company with Muravchik’s call for the U.S. to bomb Iran’s nuclear facil- ities, to deny Tehran “a decisive boost in its quest for regional dominance.” For the record, that prescription is emphatically not the view of the Journal , the FSJ Editorial Board or, as far as we know, a majority of the policy professionals of the Foreign Service. However, the Journal is proud of its tradition of publishing authors who display a wide range of opinions, even those we find dif- ficult to sanction. No matter how one assesses the Bush administration’s record thus far, we hope that our coverage will shed some light on prospects for the next two years. In any case, we feel confident in declaring that whatever happens, Foreign Service professionals will continue to implement U.S. foreign policy faithfully and skillfully. F O C U S 20 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 7 The Journal is proud of its tradition of publishing authors who display a wide range of opinions, even those we find difficult to sanction.