The Foreign Service Journal, February 2008

compensate for and encourage. It is interesting that at the state level there is already strong interest, especially in the states of Ama- zonas and Acre. In fact, Ama- zonas has instituted ecosystem service payments to communities that maintain their forests. While the Amazon is only part of the “forest and greenhouse gases” story, it is clearly an impor- tant part. It also plays a critical role for part of the Brazilian economy because of the rain machine. And it has imbedded within it a threshold that could lead to Amazon dieback sooner than climate change alone would bring about. In the end, the vulnerability of the Amazon forest makes the global climate change agenda even more urgent. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis report shows the average global tem- perature to be 0.75º Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The time lag between reaching a particular level of greenhouse gas concentration and the consequent trapping of heat energy means that even with- out any more emissions whatsoev- er, the Earth’s temperature is fore- cast to increase another 0.75 de- grees, to a total of 1.5º above pre- industrial levels. Many scientists believe it is unsafe to go more than 2.0º above the pre- industrial mark. And, once the average global tempera- ture has risen to 2.5º above pre-industrial levels, climate change alone will cause Amazon dieback. The time is very much at hand — indeed overdue — to press forward with all ways to eliminate further green- house gas emissions. Preserving the forests of the Amazon region should be prominent among the goals of such initiatives. F O C U S 26 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 8 Global deforestation and burning are releasing large quantities of energy and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.