The Foreign Service Journal, February 2008

Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising per- mafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes — which will, in turn, affect the planet as a whole — deserve close atten- tion by decisionmakers and the public. The findings of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment supplement the IPCC’s conclusions. Since the late 1990s, more than 300 scientists and experts, including elders of the local indigenous peoples and other insightful resi- dents, have worked on a comprehensive analysis, synthe- sis and documentation of the consequences across the Arctic of climate variability and changes. The ACIA report describes the significant disruptive effects of cli- mate change and, at the same time, identifies a number of potential opportunities for indigenous and other resi- dents, communities, economic sectors and governments of the region. Evidence of recent warming in the Arctic includes records of increasing temperatures, melting glaciers and reductions in the extent and thickness of sea ice. Scientists monitoring a glacier in Greenland have found, for instance, that it is moving into the sea three times faster than it was just a decade ago. The summertime area of the sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk to almost one-half of what it was in 1979; the sea ice retreated in 2007 to a record low, 30 percent lower than the prior low, as depict- ed in Figure 1. In Alaska and western Canada, average winter temperatures have increased by as much as 3–5° Celsius over the past 30 years, while the global average increase over the past 100 years has been only about 0.6° plus or minus 0.2° Celsius. Looking ahead, model simulations project substantial and accelerating reductions in summer sea ice around the entire Arctic Basin. Some scientists predict that by the middle of this century, the region will be ice-free during the summer. These seasonal reductions in sea ice have important implications for marine transportation. For example, the Northwest Passage in the Canadian archi- pelago was ice-free in September 2007 for several weeks, while substantial areas off the coast of Russia have been open for most of the 21st century. This will undoubtedly lead to the need to resolve geopolitical issues of rights of passage, the extent of exclusive economic zones and exist- ing boundaries between Arctic nations, as well as disputes over natural resources. Reductions in the extent of Arctic sea ice have other profound implications. First, significant increases in ener- gy will now be absorbed by the open oceanic waters. Normally, the ice reflects 85 percent of the sun’s radiated energy back into space. Secondly, access to sea ice is crit- ical to the survival and reproduction of many high-latitude marine mammals. Scientists and Arctic residents alike are concerned that the thinning and depletion of sea ice there may lead to the extinction of key marine mammals, including the polar bear, walrus and some species of seal. Loss of these species threatens the hunting culture and food supply of the Inuit in Alaska, northern Canada, Greenland and Chukotka, Russia. Melting Glaciers Recent studies of glaciers in Alaska already indicate an accelerated rate of melting there; in fact, the loss of mass of the state’s glaciers represents about half of the estimat- ed current loss worldwide. The documented melting in Greenland is of special importance because that country’s glaciers have the potential to increase sea level substan- tially. The melt area along the coastal margins and mov- ing inward on the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased, on average, by about 0.7 percent per year, with considerable interannual variation. A recent analysis of satellite data indicates that the melt area of Greenland over 30 years has increased by 30 percent. While thermal expansion of oceanic waters from increased temperatures has been viewed as the predomi- nant cause of increases in sea level, recent analyses sug- gest that the melting of these ice sheets will increasingly contribute to an average rise in sea level of as much as one meter by the end of this century. Bangladeshi officials F O C U S 28 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 8 Figure 1: Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Observations and Model Projections. (Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center)