The Foreign Service Journal, February 2008

have estimated that a one-meter rise in sea level will reduce the usable land area of their country by as much as 60 percent, while many of the small island states will see a reduction in usable land area of 50 percent. Such changes in the Earth’s climate are very likely to have significant for- eign policy implications as destabilization of populations and the advent of environmental refugees become global issues. The IPCC and others estimate that between 100 and 200 million people will become environmental refugees during this century. For centuries, permafrost has been a predominant fea- ture of the land surfaces across the Arctic. Permafrost temperatures over most of the subArctic land areas have increased by up to 2° Celsius over the past few decades, and the layer that thaws each year is increasing in many areas. During the next century, permafrost degradation is projected over 10 to 20 percent of the present per- mafrost area, and its southern limit is projected to shift northward in some regions by as much as several hun- dred kilometers. The rising temperatures are already degrading land routes over frozen tundra and across ice roads and bridges, and the incidence of mudslides, rockslides and avalanches is likely to increase. The number of days per year during which heavy equipment can travel on ice roads across the tundra, approved by the Alaska Depart- ment of Natural Resources, has dropped about 50 percent in the past 30 years (from around 200 days per year to 100 days), limiting oil and gas exploration and extraction and access by other interests. Rising temperatures across the Arctic are projected to lead to enhanced growth, denser vegetation and expan- sion of forests into the tundra, and from the tundra into polar deserts. This change, along with rising sea levels, is projected to shrink tundra area to its lowest extent in at least the past 21,000 years, potentially reducing the breed- ing area for many migratory bird species and the grazing area for animals that depend on tundra and polar desert habitats. Half the current tundra area is projected to dis- appear in this century. F O C U S F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 8 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 29