The Foreign Service Journal, February 2008

Unparalleled Challenges Indigenous peoples throughout the Arctic depend on caribou and reindeer herds, which need abundant tundra vegetation and good foraging conditions, especially during the calving season. In addition to reducing the area for grazing, climate-induced changes are projected to increase the incidence of freeze-thaw cycles and freezing rain, both of which interfere with animal maintenance (animals cannot eat iced-over vegetation). Further, migrations of other species (moose, red deer, etc.) into tra- ditional pasturelands are likely to disturb some popula- tions. At the same time, while Arctic agriculture is a small industry in global terms, the region’s potential for crop production is projected to increase and to advance north- ward. Marine fisheries are a vital part of the economy of vir- tually every Arctic country and constitute an important global food source. Because they are largely controlled by factors such as local weather conditions, ecosystem dynamics and management decisions, projecting the effects of climate change is difficult. Based on available information, however, projected warming is likely to improve conditions for some important Arctic fish stocks such as cod and herring, while negatively affecting others. For instance, the northern shrimp catch — currently at about 100,000 tons a year fromGreenlandic waters —will probably be reduced. While the total effect of climate change on fisheries will likely be less important than deci- sions regarding management, communities that are heav- ily dependent on fish as a source of food and income may be dramatically affected. Residents of the Arctic are likely to face chemical pol- lution, habitat destruction and overfishing as a result of climate and other environmental changes. At the same time, social and economic changes, such as technological innovation, trade liberalization, urbanization, self-deter- mination movements and increasing tourism, will also affect them. It appears, however, that the rapid rate of cli- mate change will likely be the limiting factor in their capacity to adapt. The projected climate changes in the Arctic present challenges with no parallel in human experience to date. They are likely to cause substantial dislocation and expose vulnerabilities among the residents. Further, because these changes are directly linked to global processes such as a rise in the sea level, the availability of new sea routes and the opening of new natural resources, the effects promise to be equally profound around the globe. What to Do? Taking these findings into account, what are the risks of a failure of the international community to act? One major factor that must be taken into account is the asymmetry between the time scale in which the climate system reacts to increases in greenhouse gases and the time scale to recover from such increases. Recovery takes roughly 10 times longer than it took to increase global greenhouse gas concentrations in the first place. There are several reasons for this. First, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) remains in the atmosphere for more than 100 years, on average. Second, in absorb- ing heat and transporting it around the planet, oceans operate on time scales lasting 50 to 100 years. As tem- peratures rise, the oceans must absorb more heat from the atmosphere than they are able to process in their nat- ural cycle. This leads to thermal expansion, causing the oceans to expand and contributing to sea level rise. Third, once temperature has increased, it takes hundreds of years to stabilize the melting of glaciers and as much as 1,000 years to stabilize the melting of ice sheets like Greenland. Another important consideration is the potential rise of methane (CH 4 ) as a significant greenhouse gas. Should this happen, the impact will be profound. Methane is 22 times more potent than CO 2 , as far as its contribution to global warming is concerned. About 70 percent of atmos- pheric methane is generated from human-related activi- ties, according to the IPCC. The increases in human- F O C U S 30 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 8 Figure 2: Projections of surface temperatures over the 21st century. (Source: ACIA Report)