The Foreign Service Journal, March 2003

42 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A R C H 2 0 0 3 would be the next U.S. target after Afghanistan. During that interview I observed a man of common sense and analytical thinking, a cautious but determined diplomat. In personal relations with journalists, he was not like Bush, who casually jokes and calls presidential reporters by name, saying: “How you doin’ Pete?” Powell was polite, but he kept a distance. However, he was clear in his message. He explained to me that President Bush had not, so far, opted for war, and that in any case the United States would be in very close consultation and coordination with Turkey, a crucial American ally. The next day the Turkish stock exchange registered a boost. Now, more than a year later, the war against Iraq seems imminent. The implications for Turkey are dire, and thus it is an extremely sensitive issue that only skill- ful, persistent and principled diplomacy can hope to resolve. Though a NATO member and close ally of the U.S., Turkey also maintains full diplomatic and econom- ic ties with Baghdad. Turkey has no sympathy for a dic- tator like Saddam Hussein, but a vast majority of the country’s 67 million citizens — 99 percent of them Muslim — is against a war in neighboring Iraq. Turks believe that an Iraq war would threaten Turkey’s own political and economic stability. Ankara is apprehensive that Iraqi Kurds might seek to create an independent state in northern Iraq amid uncertainties in the wake of Saddam’s overthrow, thus creating a permanent source of instability in the region. Having defeated its own secessionist Kurdish rebellion in 1999, Turkey fears that the establishment of an oil- rich Kurdish state on its southeastern border will once again incite its Kurdish population. Pledges by two prominent Iraqi Kurdish groups that their objective was to live in a federal Iraq and not to pursue independence after a war did not convince the Turks. U.S. assurances that Washington would not allow Iraq to split in a post- Saddam era have also failed to ease Turkish concerns. On the economic front, Turkey feels its already strug- gling economy could receive further disastrous blows due to hostilities in Iraq. Turkey experienced its worst- ever financial crisis in February 2001, and is still trying to recover through an austerity program supported by loans worth tens of billions of dollars from the International Monetary Fund. The country lost more than $50 billion due to sanctions in place against Iraq since the beginning of the 1990 Persian Gulf crisis. Ankara complains that its calls for compensation of these losses have failed to produce results, and claims that another war could fully wreck the Turkish economy. Addressing Turkey’s Concerns Throughout the negotiation process with Turkey, Powell’s State Department played a major role, along with the Pentagon and the U.S. Treasury Department. Powell assigned one of his lieutenants, Under Secretary Marc Grossman, the duty of carrying out talks with the Turkish government. Grossman accompanied Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor on several trips to Ankara. To relieve Turkey’s concerns, U.S. officials have said that in exchange for cooperation in the war, Turkey would receive as much as $14 billion, most of it in the form of loan guarantees. A small fraction was planned in the form of grants, and in addition the United States was expected to provide some military equipment assistance worth a few billion dollars. In return Washington requests that it be allowed to deploy troops on Turkish soil to open a second war front against Saddam’s forces in northern Iraq. Turkey’s southeast is the most suitable location through which U.S. troops could conduct operations into Iraq’s north. The U.S. also wants to use a number of Turkish air bases, includ- ing Incirlik, already home to nearly 50 U.S. fighter air- craft, and some ports to support the military operation. But stationing foreign troops on Turkish soil for any length of time requires parliamentary approval. Turkish public opinion, reflecting broader interna- tional dissent over what many foreigners see as an American fixation on getting rid of Saddam no matter what the consequences, has overwhelmingly opposed the war, with thousands of Turks gathering in frequent protest demonstrations. While the government’s con- cerns have focused more on possible political and eco- nomic outcomes of the war, Turkish public opinion has emphasized the possibility that tens of thousands of innocent Iraqis could lose their lives in a military con- frontation. U.S. assurances that a democratic administration in Baghdad would succeed Saddam’s tyranny and that a new Iraq, living in peace and harmony with its neigh- bors, would appear has had little effect on Turkish F O C U S Ms. Deniz Arslan Enginsoy is Washington bureau chief for the Anatolia News Agency of Turkey.