The Foreign Service Journal, March 2004

B OOKS Democracy: For Better or Worse The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad Fareed Zakaria, W.W. Norton, New York, 2003, hardcover, $24.95, 286 pages. R EVIEWED BY E LIZABETH C LARK The publication of Fareed Zakaria’s The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad is an important event. Zakaria, Newsweek ’s enormously influential foreign affairs editor, takes as his ambitious goal answering the questions, “Is democra- cy taking hold abroad?” and “How well is democracy doing here in America?”. The answer in both cases is, he laments, “not well.” Zakaria’s views on sequencing dem- ocracy-building, meticulously detailed here, have become conventional wis- dom among foreign affairs profession- als and commentators. Thomas Fried- man, for instance, recently endorsed in one of his own columns Zakaria’s consistent message that “elections should come last,” after a moderate center has had time to emerge and “sink roots, learning to use tools of the institutions of liberty: a function- ing judicial system, a free press, free speech, economic reform, civic insti- tutions and multiple political par- ties.” To that list The Future of Freedom adds reaching a specific level of per-capita GDP ($6,000 for a failure-proof democracy). Yet Zakaria is anything but clear in describing what a functioning democ- racy is like. At one point, he declares that democracy represents “as broad a dispersal of power as possible.” But elsewhere he says that “The Western model of government is best symbol- ized not by mass plebiscite but the impartial judge.” He also repeatedly refers to “demo- cratically elected regimes” without dis- tinguishing between elections that meet international standards, involving broad criteria beyond election-day per- formance, and fraudulent, rigged elec- tions. Zakaria sees the absence of free and fair elections in the “limited” democracies he praises — Jordan, Singapore, Malaysia and Morocco — as a minor flaw. Indeed, he also refers toMalaysia as an unqualified democra- cy. Nor does the confusion end there. In recoiling from elections as a slippery slope to mob rule and the plebiscite, Zakaria leaves the reader wondering how the process of democratization should work. What is the mechanism that will keep a “liberal autocrat” liber- al if he does not have to fear being put out of power peacefully in fully demo- cratic elections? Why would multiple political parties develop? Why would judges stay incorruptible? What would sustain an effective free press? To be fair, the author seems to recognize the point. After praising Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “liberalizing auto- crat,” he admits: “There is always the possibility, of course, that Putin, or more likely one of his successors, will turn out to be a bad czar and use his enormous power for less noble goals. It has happened in the past.” Indeed. No analyst of global democratiza- tion believes that elections by them- selves create a fully functioning democracy. However, Zakaria’s elec- tion-phobic approach to democratic development means that he does not explore the more fruitful model of “do it all at once” democratization. This is the model that the U.S. has actually had to follow in Bosnia, Afghanistan, Haiti and Iraq, and for which there is a body of precedent (well analyzed in the 2003 Rand study, “America’s Role in Nation Building”). Blaming “pre- mature democracy” or the policy of “encouraging elections” misses other, more likely targets for democratic fail- ure. Problems in Bosnia may have had more to do with over-elaborate institu- tional design of the Dayton Accords than early elections per se. Further- more, “elections first” is probably a better description of the successful democratization of the former com- munist countries of Eastern Europe, whose eagerness to get into the E.U. forced compliance with democracy requirements — most crucially, fully free and fair elections. Despite such shortcomings, The Future of Freedom contains many far- ranging and rich insights on fostering political change. In his long, illuminat- ing section on the pathologies of Islam Zakaria makes timely arguments for Zakaria leaves the reader wondering how the process of democratization should work. 62 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A R C H 2 0 0 4