The Foreign Service Journal, March 2005

10 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A R C H 2 0 0 5 Former Diplomat Calls for “Open Source” Intelligence to Aid War on Terror Former career minister Charles Hill calls for the opening of more con- sulates to aid the war on terror, in an interview in the Fall 2004 issue of the Hoover Institution Newsletter. In “Another Look at the 9/11 Report,” Hill takes issue with the 9/11 Commission’s major recommenda- tions, in particular offering novel insights and suggestions on the collec- tion and analysis of intelligence. “The conventional wisdom — that collection is expensive while analysis is cheap — needs rethinking,” Hill states. “An increasing amount of the information and intelligence that we need can be gained from open sources. Collection from open sources is cheap and needs new emphasis.” In their recommendations to improve analytic capabilities, lan- guage skills and financial incentives, and ensure a “seamless relationship” between human and technical collec- tion, Hill says, the commission misses what has actually gone wrong in recent decades. Asked for examples of open sources, and how they could be enhanced, Hill says the commission ought to have urged Congress and the State Department to reverse the trend of closing American consulates around the world. “Opening small, inexpensive, three- or four-person offices staffed by Foreign Service offi- cers with excellent language and cul- tural skills, operating wholly in the open, could give us a much better sense of what is really going on in vast parts of the world where terrorists have taken up residence,” Hill states. “Analysis can’t be considered cheap when a ‘failure to connect the dots’ has proved costly beyond our worst nightmares,” Hill adds. “Such failures come when analysts do not fully understand what they are looking at.” Analysis has faltered, he says, because the quality and availability of education in world history and politics — as opposed to “political science” — has declined in American higher edu- cation. Presently a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, FSO Hill served formerly as executive aide to former Secretary of State George P. Shultz, as special consultant on policy to the sec- retary-general of the United Nations, and as diplomat-in-residence and a lecturer in international studies at Yale University. The Focus Is on Freedom President Bush’s inaugural address on Jan. 20 celebrated America’s dedi- cation to freedom and liberty, and pledged his administration to spread- ing these universal values to every cor- ner of the world. To grasp the possi- ble implications on the ground, click on the Freedom House Web site ( www.freedomhouse.org ). Freedom House’s well-respected annual survey of the globe, Freedom in the World , is featured on the site’s home page, along with a world map graphically identifying free and not- free areas. An annual comparative assessment of the state of political rights and civil liberties in 192 coun- tries and 14 related and disputed ter- ritories, the survey has been published since 1978. Individual countries are ranked on a scale of 1 to 7, one being the best. The 600-page report is widely used by policy-makers, jour- nalists and scholars. The site also contains updates on the status of battles for freedom and democracy around the world, and background reports on Afghanistan, the Palestinian Authority, Sudan and other key places. Previewing the 2005 survey, Freedom House revealed on Dec. 20 that political rights and civil liberties have become so restricted in Russia that the country has been downgraded to “not free.” The survey shows that Russia was the only country to register a negative category change in 2004, moving from partly free to not free. However, Russia was not the only country in the former Soviet Union that experienced political and civic changes: setbacks took place in Belarus and Armenia, while freedom gained in the aftermath of civic protests in Georgia and Ukraine. Complete survey results, including a package of charts and graphs, are available online. The ratings reflect global events from Dec. 1, 2003, through Nov. 30, 2004. Country nar- ratives will be released in book form this spring. Overall, freedom progressed world- wide in 2004, according to Freedom House, with 26 countries registering gains against 11 showing setbacks. Most gains and declines did not result in category shifts. Some potentially positive steps forward took place in the Middle East and North Africa, espe- cially in the areas of women’s rights and increased civic activism. C YBERNOTES