The Foreign Service Journal, March 2006

Avian Influenza: a Multilateral Challenge Millions of birds have succumbed to avian influenza, and millions more have been purged to stem its spread in the past year. Almost 100 humans have already died from the disease. Although the disease mainly originat- ed in Asia, reports of human infections surface on a regular basis, with each report seeming to signify a newly endangered region — Turkey being one of the most recent. The World Health Organization estimates that a pandemic caused by a mutation of the virus could last for up to three years, and that anywhere from 2 to 50 million people could die ( www.who.int/top ics/avian_influenza/en/ ). The last such pandemic was the Hong Kong Flu of 1968-1969, which killed an esti- mated 1.5 million people. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the virus has not yet mutated to the point where it can easily be transmitted by human- to-human contact. However, each new case of human infection increases the risk of viral mutation, and new cases could continue for years in underdeveloped areas where people keep live poultry in their homes, and where the slaughter and marketing of poultry are carried out without the proper sanitary precautions. While difficult, it is not out of the realm of possibility to achieve contain- ment and perhaps even prevention of a widespread outbreak of the disease. If a global pandemic is prevented, or at least mitigated, it will be a watershed for international cooperation. “Fighting the avian influenza virus in animals is the most effective and cost-effective way to reduce the likeli- hood of H5N1 [the avian flu virus] mutating or re-assorting to cause a human flu pandemic,” Food and Agri- culture Organization Deputy Dir- ector-General David Harcharik told the International Pledging Con- ference on Avian and Human Pan- demic Influenza in Beijing on Jan. 18 ( www.ft.com/birdflu ) . The move- ments of animals, products and people from endemic areas to other regions should be strictly controlled, says the FAO, and this requires close coopera- tion among health, agricultural and veterinary authorities. The FAO, which plays a major role in this campaign, also urges countries along the routes of migratory birds to increase vigilance and be prepared to intervene ( www.fao.org ) . At the Bei- jing meeting, the international commu- nity pledged $1.9 billion to fight avian flu in the worst-affected countries. According to the World Health Organization, the world is still inade- quately prepared for a flu pandemic. Although Tamiflu is an effective method of early prevention, it is esti- mated by the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health that it would take more than a decade to manufacture enough to treat even 20 percent of the global population ( http://www.jhsph.edu/ flu/ ). Furthermore, the cost of the medication has been cited as another drawback, at least for developing nations that are among the most affected by the disease. In the U.S., health officials have developed a catastrophic scenario against which to plan measures to meet a potential flu pandemic. In November, President Bush issued the “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza” outlining the U.S. approach to handling such an emergency ( www. whitehouse.gov/homeland/pan demic-influenza.html ). For individuals, perhaps the best advice is to stay informed. The WHO’s Web site on bird flu, listed above, provides information, news and a status report on the disease. The Centers for Disease Control also maintains an informative site on the topic ( http://www.cdc.gov/flu/av ian/ ). The U.S. government’s official site features official travel notices, arti- cles from the National Institute of Health, and general information on developments at the state and national level in the U.S. ( http://www.pan demicflu.gov/ ). The E.U. Web site on the subject provides a more rele- vant perspective for people currently living in Europe ( http://europa.eu. int/comm/dgs/health_consumer/ dyna/influenza/index.cfm ). Whatever its outcome, this issue already marks an important test of diplomacy for the 21st century. u — Shawn Guan, Editorial Intern M A R C H 2 0 0 6 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 13 C Y B E R N O T E S u I ’ve been Secretary of State for almost exactly one year now, and in that time I have become more convinced than ever that we have the finest diplomatic service in the world. I’ve seen the noble spirit of that service, a service that defines the men and women of our Foreign Service and Civil Service and our Foreign Service Nationals, many of whom are serving in dangerous places far away from their families. — Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Georgetown University, Jan. 18, http://www.state. gov/secretary/rm/2006/ 59306.htm.