The Foreign Service Journal, March 2008

70 percent of those registered. And it was apparently “free and fair” until the last stage, when vote tallying at polling stations in more than 35 parliamentary constituencies broke down. Kibaki was re-elected with a 230,000-vote margin. Though the election dispute ap- parently follows ethnic lines — with Kibaki, a Kikuyu, representing that dominant ethnic group and Odinga, a Luo, representing the Luo and other, smaller groups — the reality is more complex ( http://allafrica.com/stor ies/200801290020.html ). “Access to land, housing and water are the real issues that appear in the guise of eth- nicity and are triggered by political disputes,” a Danish aid worker who was part of an emergency assessment team in the Rift Valley, told the Inter Press Service. Kikuyus, who constitute 22 per- cent of Kenya’s population and who dominated the post-independence administration of Jomo Kenyatta, were favored with loans to purchase the land left by departing British colo- nials. As a result, they hold most of the country’s land, even in the midst of other tribes and especially in the fertile Rift Valley, which has been the focus of turmoil in every wave of elec- toral violence Kenya has witnessed since introducing a multiparty system in 1992. Nairobi exemplifies the larger, un- derlying problem: there are no mid- dle-class neighborhoods, only slums and posh localities. Though Kibaki’s administration from 2002 to 2006 is credited with boosting tourism and reaching a per capita economic growth rate of 6 percent in 2006, that is not the whole story. The gap between the few rich and the vast majority of mar- ginalized citizens has widened over the past decade, statistics show. For the majority of the population, the availability of housing and fresh water are still urgent, daily concerns. The way out of the crisis, according to CSIS analyst Joel Barkan ( http:// forums.csis.org/africa/?cat=7 ), will ultimately depend on Kenya’s political class recognizing what civil society and the diplomatic communi- ty has made clear — that Kenya is at the proverbial fork in the road. One path leads to continued chaos and the loss of much of what the country has gained since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1992, and espe- cially since the end of the Daniel Arap Moi regime in 2002. The other leads to the consolidation of democracy, renewed economic development and the continued emergence of Kenya as one of the most significant countries in Africa. As the anchor state of greater East Africa, Kenya matters. Barkan ob- serves that a stable and prosperous Kenya raises the prospects for peace and development in Uganda, Rwan- da, Eastern Congo and southern Sud- an. Kenyans are being tested to the limit by the current crisis; yet if a deal can be reached, including at least minimal constitutional reforms, they may eventually look back on the events of the first week of January 2008 as the time when their country turned the corner and became an example for the rest of Africa. There are a number of valuable online resources for information and analysis of Kenya and the current cri- sis. On Jan. 10, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, in collaboration with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, brought together a panel of speakers to assess the current situation and dis- cuss options for the international community to respond to the crisis. You can view this event, moderated by Ambassador Johnnie Carson, a retired FSO and ambassador to Kenya from 1999 to 2003, at the Wilson Center Web site ( www.wilsoncenter.org ) . For background, see “Understand- ing Kenya” by Garrett Jones ( www.fp ri.org/enotes/200801.jones.unde rstandingkenya.html ) and “Break- ing the Stalemate in Kenya” by Joel D. Barkan ( www.csis.org/media/ csis/pubs/080108_kenya_crisis.p df ). The Council on Foreign Rela- tions also provides background and current analysis ( www.cfr.org/pub lication/15322/understanding_ke nyas_politics.html ). To follow news developments in Kenya, go to www.allafrica.com . The BBC online also carried regular news and feature articles with links to background material at http://news. bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/ . This edition of Cybernotes was compiled by Senior Editor Susan Brady Maitra. 14 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A R C H 2 0 0 8 C Y B E R N O T E S