The Foreign Service Journal, March 2011

12 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A R C H 2 0 1 1 and other Western capitals to instruct their banks not to deal with Gbagbo’s government ( http://csis.org ) . In a Dec. 22 post titled “The Fight to Restore Democracy in Côte d’ Ivoire,” Morgan Roach of the Heritage Foundation concurs that it is up to neighboring African leaders, like Nige- ria’s President Goodluck Jonathan, to press Gbagbo to step down. Roach adds that the U.S. must work with the A.U., U.N. and E.U. to ensure that democratic governance is restored ( http://blog.heritage.org ) . A Dec. 5 Le Monde story lays out three possibilities for how the situation could develop: diplomatic compro- mise, international embargo or vio- lence ( www.lemonde.fr/afrique ) . However, Ouattara does not yet support global economic sanctions be- cause they would hurt the Ivorian peo- ple. One option for compromise would be a power-sharing agreement like those in Kenya and Zimbabwe. Several experts are wary of this path. In a Dec. 6 Foreign Policy post titled “The Case Against a Unity Gov- ernment in Côte d’Ivoire,” Elizabeth Dickinson cautions against the co- presidency option, given the fact that the two rivals are professional and per- sonal foes who would be unlikely to get along ( http://blog.foreignpolicy . com ). The U.S. Institute of Peace also cautions against a power-sharing agree- ment, noting in the January edition of its Prevention Newsletter that Mr. Ouattara was the clear winner ( www. usip.org ) . The overall outlook for a diplomatic solution is increasingly grim. In a Jan. 16 article titled “Mission to Abidjan— Will Raila’s Carrots and Stick Strategy Work?” Jaindi Kisero of The East African writes that Gbagbo’s willing- ness to negotiate a peaceful end to the crisis without preconditions and Ouat- tara’s readiness to ensure a dignified exit for Gbagbo present a glimmer of hope. But Gbagbo’s actions since the mission by Mr. Odinga and the ECOWAS team have dimmed that hope ( http://alafrica.com ) . In a Jan. 12 International Herald Tribune op-ed, “What to do about Ivory Coast,” Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow John Campbell also ex- presses reservations about a co-presi- dency and lays out his own plan for the U.S. to best contain the conflict. Wash- ington should underscoreMr. Gbagbo’s pariah status, assist neighboring states with refugee outflows and stanch the flow of arms into the country. Mr. Campbell further urges Wash- ington to provide diplomatic support to the A.U. and ECOWAS in interna- tional forums like the Security Coun- cil, and warn Pres. Gbagbo that he and his supporters will be held accountable for any human rights violations they perpetrate. Finally, the international community should plan the delivery of humanitarian assistance should fight- ing break out in Côte d’Ivoire ( www. nytimes.com ) . — Danielle Derbes, Editorial Intern OECD Downplays Risks of Cyberattacks Attacks on computer systems have limited potential to cause global catas- trophe, but only in combination with another disaster, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop- ment concludes in a Jan. 17 report ti- tled “Reducing Systemic Cybersecur- ity Risk” ( www.oecd.org ) . In the study, conducted as part of the OECD Project on Future Global Shocks, authors Peter Sommer (Infor- mation Systems and Innovation Group, London School of Economics) and Ian Brown (Oxford Internet Institute, Ox- ford University) say very few single cyber-related events have the capacity to cause a global shock. The main pos- sibility is an attack on one of the un- derlying technical protocols on which the Internet depends, such as the Bor- der Gateway Protocol, which deter- mines routing between Internet ser- vice providers. Otherwise, most breaches of cyber- security — such as malware, distrib- uted denial of service and espionage, and the actions of criminals, recre- ational hackers and hacktivists — have relatively localized and short-term im- C Y B E R N O T E S 50 Years Ago... T wo years ago the U.S. Information Agency began giving psy- chiatric and psychological tests to all its new Foreign Service recruits, including wives. So far, there are no plans to give these tests to employees already serving overseas. Although USIA officials still consider the program experimental and admit it will be several years before they will be certain just how good it is, they are already encouraged by the results. The State Department’s Medical Division has followed USIA’s experiment closely, but, as far as we know, has no plans to follow suit. Nevertheless, the signs, it seems to us, indicate that a P-and-P evaluation, as it is called in USIA, may some day become required of all personnel interested in government service abroad. USIA’s experience in this field thus deserves attention and comment. — Editorial, “Psychiatric Testing for All?” FSJ , March 1961.