The Foreign Service Journal, March 2012

10 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A R C H 2 0 1 2 Some notable possibilities in the second, less dire tier include growing sectarian strains and renewed violence in Iraq (which appear to be well under way), and the eruption of hostilities in the South China Sea as a result of com- peting territorial claims. Paul B. Stares, the director of the Center for Preventive Action and the General JohnW. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention, and Micah Zenko, a Council on Foreign Relations fellow for conflict prevention, jointly conducted the survey. As they point out, “The United States has a dismal record of forecast- ing instability and conflicts. Presently there is no systematic U.S. government process linking forecasting to contin- gency planning. This survey is in- tended to meet that need.” The CPA was set up to educate American and international leaders about the threat violent clashes pose to American interests. It pursues this goal by engaging U.S. officials and the news media in prevention efforts, building networks with international organizations and policymakers, and is- suing special reports such as this. — David J. Barton, Editorial Intern Other Than That, Mrs. Lincoln... On Jan. 11, the World Economic Forum ( www.weforum.org ) releas- ed a strikingly gloomy report on the eve of its annual gathering of business leaders, policymakers and academics in Davos, Switzerland. Conducted by the WEF’s Center for Global Competiveness and Per- formance, the Global Competiveness Report 2011-2012 identifies severe income disparity and chronic fiscal imbalance as the top risks facing busi- ness leaders and policymakers. It pre- dicts that this will remain true not only in 2012, but for the next decade. After warning that failure to address these twin problems could bring about a “dystopian future for much of hu- manity,” the report notes that the In- ternet can magnify and spread the effects of disasters, both natural and manmade. One contributor to the report, Er- wann O. Michel-Kerjan, managing di- rector of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, notes that this trend is “one of the flip sides of globalization. A local event can be- come a global event much more quickly.” — Steven Alan Honley, Editor C Y B E R N O T E S 50 Years Ago... “Prime Minister assured me his remarks intended for domestic ears and not, repeat not, with intention of affecting progress of cur- rent negotiations.” Translation: Keep cool. “Department informed that Abernathy McGonigle, prominent businessman and member of several citizen’s action committees, planning trip to your area. Posts on attached schedule should extend…” Translation: Friend of administration. “Assignment selected with view to Jones’ particular talents; needs imaginative of- ficer able to meet challenging conditions at…” Translation: Only slot open. “…are factors indicating likelihood of such a move. On other hand, usually re- liable sources in position to know have indicated to Embassy that…” Translation: Your guess is as good as ours! — “Paraphrase,” from “Washington Letter” by Gwen Barrows, FSJ , March 1962. CHANGE OF ADDRESS Moving? Take AFSA With You! Change your address online, visit us at http://www.afsa.org/ address_change.aspx Or Send change of address to: AFSA Membership Department 2101 E Street NW Washington, DC 20037