The Foreign Service Journal, March 2017

28 MARCH 2017 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL a major impediment to relocation, and this reduced mobility affects the ability of populations to respond effectively to climate change, natural disasters and manmade disasters. Poor governance redux: Corrupt leaders and corrosive gover- nance have been with us since the beginning of recorded history. To the extent we see new trends in this age-old human drama, a new breed of authoritarian has emerged who creatively abuses national laws to give the appearance of democratic victory or popular mandate and then, once in power, rewrites laws and dis- mantles opposition groups to give the impression they are being constitutionally installed—as rulers for life. Migration: Historically, migration has been a safety valve for regions affected by violence, social upheaval or natural disas- ters. At the same time, movements of people can cause cultural conflict; for example, the recent influx of Syrians and others has been linked to attacks in Western Europe and other countries previously thought to be “safe.” Now, many countries that have traditionally welcomed refugees are hesitant to admit more, add- ing to the economic and social turmoil in high-risk regions. Donor fatigue: Nations and international organizations find themselves increasingly unable to keep up with historically high levels of instability. The United Nations Refugee Agency, UNHCR, reports that at the end of 2015 there were 65.3 million displaced people around the world, more than ever before and well exceed- ing the numbers of refugees following World War II. What that number means is that today one out of every 113 people on the planet is seeking asylum. All of this adds up to a youthful, impatient world, increasingly aware of and active in global and regional social media, but with uncertain economic opportunities and decreasing options for relocation in search of better opportunities. People in countries that are politically and economically unstable or moribund are much less willing to participate in social structures. They can’t get jobs. Even if there are elections, they won’t vote because they don’t have faith in the outcome. Tough, cynical extremists know how and where to recruit potential terrorists. They have a message that sells well to people who think they’ve run out of options. When you’re on the social brink, terrorism can sound exciting, even romantic. You no longer feel powerless. You can take action to change the world. Over the past six-plus decades, our nation and our allies have invested heavily in global democ- racy. But what we are finding is that, without an underpinning of economic stability, democracy can be “a mile wide and an inch deep.” All these factors suggest that we are likely to see terrorism and extremism directed increasingly against both “hard” and “soft” targets in more and more locations, affecting countries and regions with high levels of instability. Managing Risk for an Indispensable Nation The United States, as former Secretary of State John Kerry has repeatedly said, has been “the indispensable nation.” But that indispensability means we also are perhaps the world’s most scrutinized nation. The rest of the world is watching us. They watch for a combination of reasons—they watch for our leader- ship, watch to see if we live up to our values and promises, watch for our mistakes and missteps, watch for clues about our true intentions and future actions, and they watch because the United States is, in so many spheres, too important to ignore. Unfortu- nately, some are watching to study our weaknesses and vulner- abilities. An indispensable nation is one that is crucial and vital. That is why we are working across the globe today. And this includes being proactive—establishing and keeping a visible diplomatic presence—in some of the world’s most dangerous places. Con- trary to the stereotype of past generations, today’s diplomats are anything but risk-averse. Think about what it means to be a diplomat today. As of the summer of 2016, our diplomats were conducting the nation’s business at 24 posts where not all family members were autho- rized to be. Nineteen of these posts had authorized departure for family members and nonessential staff, and three have DEPARTMENTOFSTATE Gregory B. Starr, Assistant Secretary of State for Diplomatic Security from 2013 to January 2017, speaks with Diplomatic Security personnel in 2016.