The Foreign Service Journal, March 2022

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | MARCH 2022 87 Thicker Than Oil Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads David H. Rundell, I.B. Tauris, 2021, $17.95/ paperback, e-book available, 432 pages. Reviewed by Steven Alan Honley To riff on its title, this book is both a vision and a mirage. On the plus side, it is the best one-volume history of a country I’ve read in a long time, master- fully explaining how Saudi Arabia has enjoyed so many years of stability, how it has become less stable over the years and what to look for in the future. That comes as no surprise consider- ing its author, retired Foreign Service Officer David H. Rundell, has deep, if not unmatched, expertise. He spent more than half of his 30-year diplomatic career in the country, working at the embassy in Riyadh and at the consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran as chargé d’affaires, deputy chief of mission, political counselor, eco- nomic counselor, commercial counselor and commercial attaché. Just in case that weren’t enough to establish his regional bona fides, his other overseas assignments included Bahrain, Syria, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates. Now based in Dubai and London, he travels regularly to Saudi Arabia and is a partner in the consulting firm Arabia Analytica. Rundell structures his book around an existential gamble. Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s blueprint for his country’s future, is the most radical set of economic and social reforms seen there for half a century. “How it will affect the long-established balance between tradition and change that has kept Saudi Arabia stable is the principal theme of this book. Will the current reforms prove to be a successful vision or a deceptive mirage? This is the broad question I seek to answer.” Of course, one must first know Saudi his- tory to appreciate the roots of the current challenges and the necessity for whole- sale restructuring. Here, Rundell excels. He begins with several brisk but thorough chapters documenting how the House of Saud came to unify and rule one of the few countries Europeans never colonized. Next, he discusses how each Saudi monarch has managed (or mismanaged) his succession, sought to balance stake- holders and governed. And he concludes the book with a detailed discussion of the Vision 2030 plan and its prospects. Inevitably, there is a certain amount of repetition along the way as Rundell tacks back and forth between themes, requir- ing him to cite some developments again and again in various contexts. However, I found those periodic reminders helpful, not tedious, for the most part. What I did find tedious was the poor copyediting and proofreading of the manuscript. On far too many pages there are sentences that either lack punc- tuation or have superfluous commas inserted, apparently at random. Every reference to former President Barack Obama (even in the index) misspells his first name as “Barak.” And Rundell cites an Eisen- hower administration arms deal but says it occurred in 1952, when Harry Truman was still president. While those shortcomings do not shake my faith that the author knows what he’s talking about, they are distractions. My real problem with Vision or Mirage is its analysis. To his credit, Rundell discusses the negative aspects of Saudi society and, in par- ticular, the character of MBS, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is known. In Chapter 6, for example, he notes: “Both Saudi officials and foreign busi- nessmen complain of being summoned on short notice to late-night meetings and then kept waiting five hours for the crown prince to turn up, whereupon he asks good questions, sometimes talks more than listens, and leaves after 45 minutes.” Yet he also praises MBS for being “ambitious, focused, forceful, char- ismatic, disciplined, and decisive.” It is certainly plausible that both assessments of his leadership style are equally valid. But while Rundell is careful to note the potential for disaster, overall, he comes across as a cheerleader for Vision 2030 and the regime. Rundell opens his book in November 2017, when hundreds of Saudi princes and businessmen were taken to Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton Hotel, which became what he wryly calls “the world’s first five-star BOOKS While Rundell is careful to note the potential for disaster, overall, he comes across as a cheerleader for Vision 2030 and the regime.