The Foreign Service Journal, March 2023

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | MARCH 2023 27 From Instinct to Evidence in Foreign Policy Decision-Making FOCUS ON FS REFORM: OUTLOOK AND CONSIDERATIONS “ W e have a win- dow before us to make historic, lasting change,” began Secretary of State Antony Blinken in announcing his Modernizing Diplomacy Initiative at the Foreign Service Institute on Oct. 27, 2022. Blinken’s track record on implement- ing his vision is admirable and should earn him a place on the list of Secretaries of State who have left the institution better than they found it. Dan Spokojny (@DanSpoko on Twitter) is the founder and CEO of fp21, a think tank dedicated to studying foreign policy reform. He served in government for more than a decade as a U.S. Foreign Service officer and a legislative staffer in Congress. He also served on the governing board of the American Foreign Service Association. He is finishing his Ph.D. in political science at the University of California, Berkeley, focusing on the role of expertise in foreign policy. An argument for the practice of diplomacy to be more science and less art. BY DAN SPOKOJNY But let’s turn our sights toward the necessities and opportu- nities for deeper reform at Foggy Bottom. Achieving President Joe Biden’s stated goal of elevating diplomacy to the lead role in U.S. foreign policy remains a distant dream. Deep, structural challenges to the effectiveness of the State Department remain unaddressed: The clearance process continues to produce least- common-denominator consensus rather than maximize impact; promotion procedures incentivize staffing up and risk aversion; a cultural distaste for training and learning hobbles the organiza- tion’s ability to advance; and the decision-making process relies too heavily on instincts and opinions at the expense of the best available evidence. These problems have been identified in depth in a series of reports over the past two years: Revitalizing the State Department and American Diplomacy (Council on Foreign Relations Special Report No. 89), A U.S. Diplomatic Service for the 21st Century (Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs), Less Art, More Science: Transforming Foreign Policy through Evidence, Integrity, and Innovation (fp21), and others. Do any of us believe the State Department is performing at its potential? This topic is personal for me. I joined the Foreign Service because I wanted to have an impact. But the bromides I heard Maria Carluccio/Theispot