The Foreign Service Journal, March 2023

30 MARCH 2023 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL in their 2020 article, “The Transformation of Diplomacy: How to Save the State Department. ” In their words, diplomats require “smart policy judgment” and a “feel for foreign countries.” They must possess a “nuanced grasp of history and culture, a hard- nosed facility in negotiations, and the capacity to translate U.S. interests.” Certainly this is all generally true, but Burns and Thomas-Greenfield (like the Department of State’s promotion process) offer little guidance on what good judgment actu- ally looks like. There’s simply no framework for identifying real expertise. This casts doubt on the efficacy of State’s promotion process. While the Foreign Service’s promotion precepts include catego- ries such as substantive knowledge and intellectual ability, these qualities are rhetorically admirable but difficult to evaluate. Virtually no training or feedback is offered to improve one’s sub- stantive knowledge or intellectual abilities. The resulting evalu- ations are largely subjective, and there is little ability to compare between officers. In the absence of clear understanding of merit, it’s predictable that diversity suffers as the system selects people who look and think in a homogenous way. The Foreign Service Institute boasts an impressive array of class offerings, ranging from language training and area stud- ies to consular procedures. But a core curriculum of vital skills necessary for success for diplomats remains absent. These skills deficits have contributed to State’s marginalization in the policy process and an overreliance on military instruments of power. For better or worse, Congress is getting involved. In the State Authorization Act signed into law in December 2022, Congress required new oversight and study of the training curriculum at the Foreign Service Institute, and “a comprehensive review of the policies, personnel, organization, and processes related to promotions within the Department [of State]” from the indepen- dent comptroller’s office. The State Department’s impulse will be to say, “Our current systems are perfect!”—but I hope it will take the opportunity to set a bolder vision for the future. Amore scientific foreign policy will demand new standards for hiring, promotion, and training. State should conduct longitudinal studies to identify the skills and competencies most associated with policy success. It should also develop more objective, com- parable criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of our diplomats. Official and informal promotion procedures create powerful incentives for how work gets done in an organization. New standards must help State promote the most effective staff, train personnel on today’s most effective skills, and recruit a diverse pool of talent. More Science, Less Art In recent years, experienced U.S. diplomats have warned of a “crisis” inside the State Department: “a reluctance to speak truth to power, a lack of individual accountability … [and] an aver- sion to professional education and training.” Two senior Biden administration officials argued in a Council on Foreign Rela- tions study that a “decades-long failure to implement essential reforms” has produced a “policy environment that has, in some priority areas, evolved beyond the core competencies of most Foreign and Civil Service officers.” The modernization of the State Department and the return of diplomacy to its rightful place in the U.S. national security infrastructure—on top—will require more than small tweaks at the margins. Blinken’s modernization initiative is commendable, but more is required. A new organizational culture must relentlessly pursue policy success. Achieving this will require the practice of diplomacy to be a little more science, and a little less art. To be clear, science is not about producing magical right answers. Instead, science is merely a method of carefully accumulating knowledge. Features of a scientific process include an emphasis on testing theories rather than asserting themwithout evidence, establishing clear parameters of success, committing to methodological transpar- ency, and continually learning from successes and failures. All of these features are largely absent from today’s State Department, which relies too heavily on intuition rather than accumulated knowledge. The good news is that State can implement most of these changes internally without any help from Congress or the presi- dent. That is more desirable than the alternative in which reform efforts are thrust upon it from the outside—sometimes inexpertly designed and often facing much internal opposition. As this country’s first executive agency, the State Depart- ment helped design a stable and secure world order. It houses an impressive array of public servants whose hard-earned expertise is born from years of experience, study, and training. American diplomats know a great deal about the world. Yet as the world grows more competitive and complex, the State Department must evolve apace. n The Department of State’s new “Learning Agenda” offers an exciting opportunity.