The Foreign Service Journal, April 2003

20 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / A P R I L 2 0 0 3 from the West for their acute security concerns, including Islamic radical incursions, they cautiously sought the support of Moscow and Beijing. The way in which, later, they osten- tatiously ignored the SCO — whose main aim was countert- errorism — and opted for bilateral relations with the U.S. points to their apprehensions about Sino-Russian policies. Iran, for obvious reasons, is feeling extremely threatened as it sees American mil- itary forces that could potentially be used against it surrounding it from all sides, in Georgia, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and likely soon in Iraq, in addition to the earlier bases in Turkey, Oman, and the Persian Gulf. As the war against the Taliban and al-Qaida winds down, and the U.S. bases are no longer as clearly motivated by the war on terrorism, the U.S. is certain to face increasing pressure — whether explicit, implicit or perhaps even covert — from Russia, China and Iran to withdraw or to downscale its presence. Whether in tandem or individually, China and Russia are likely to take initiatives to regain some of the ground they lost in the region since the fall of 2001. Current initiatives such as Russia’s Kant Air Base sug- gest this process may already have begun. America should expect implicit tests of its determination to remain in Central Asia; any lack of attention to the region will likely be exploited by other powers to try to increase their own presence, perhaps at the expense of American interests there. Radical Islam Movements espousing a radical and millenarian version of Islam have made inroads in Central Asia since the early 1990s, but their influence remains very limited. Central Asian Islam is very different from Arab Islam, especially the Gulf variety, and Central Asians have a centuries-long track record of living peacefully with other religions and allowing for a plu- rality of views within Islam. Yet a set of factors has enabled radical movements to prosper there. Islam suffered heavily from the Soviet experience; young and middle-aged people have a much weaker knowledge of the tenets of the religion than their parents due to forced Soviet atheism. This con- tributed considerably to the secularization of society, but also created a moral and spiri- tual vacuum among the youth. Knowing their own religious traditions less well, youngsters in Central Asia are particularly susceptible to the belief that views imported from the Arab world are the true Islam, espe- cially as indigenous religious institutions are weak. Poverty and increasing social and income gaps, together with official corruption, also play into the hands of radical groups, whose message is not only a religious one but also one of social justice and equal- ity, stressing the maintenance of law and order and just rulers. In addition, the large financial sums avail- able from the Gulf region to radical organizations help them propagate their views effectively. Finally, the absence of legal alternatives to political activity independent of the governments may be pushing increasing numbers of politically active citizens toward radical movements. Rising radical Islamism brings with it increasing anti-American sentiments. These views are marginal today, but need to be watched, analyzed and pre- empted by regional governments with U.S. support and assistance. Central Asia is an area where America still has a positive connotation for most peo- ple; the U.S. needs to ensure this remains the case through its policies toward the various regimes in the region. Strengthening and supporting moderate Islamic institutions in the Central Asian societies is one example of how the U.S. could not only curtail possible extremism and terrorism, but also gain pop- ularity in a region where radical groups are feared and loathed by a majority of the population. Suppressing the Drug Trade The trade in narcotics, especially opium and its main derivate, heroin, is perhaps the area in which the U.S. has failed most blatantly since September 2001. For all its flaws, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan eradicated almost all opium production F O C U S Whether in tandem or individually, China and Russia are likely to take initiatives to regain some of the ground they have lost in the region since the fall of 2001.