The Foreign Service Journal, April 2003

to the IMU’s role in the drug trade, and its need to open up new trafficking routes. In Afghanistan, the return to a drug economy directly con- flicts with the rebuilding of the state and its central authority. Drug production and traffick- ing depend on instability and weak central governments. The stronger the state is, and the more efficient the police and system of justice are, the worse the environment for criminal networks. These networks therefore have an interest in keeping whole areas outside government control, or in other ways making sure the government does not disturb their criminal operations. The consequences are deteriorat- ing law and order, exacerbating an already difficult sit- uation for the local population by discouraging invest- ment, which decreases economic production and increases poverty. This situation forces the population to participate in the production and/or smuggling of narcotics. It is hence imperative for the U.S. to tackle the drug trade, both its roots in Afghanistan and its role and salience in the politics and economy of Central Asian transit states. Democratic Reform Ever since the mid-1990s, the Central Asian region has been notorious for backtracking on democratic development. While Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been exposed more than others for their short- comings and human rights abuses, a functional oppo- sition and free media are suffering in the entire region. Even Kyrgyzstan, which once tried to portray itself as an island of democracy in Central Asia, has reverted to governmental behavior very similar to that of its autocratic neighbors. Differences between the Central Asian governments are not in the nature of their rule, but in degree and in their capacity to enforce that rule. So far, America’s closer ties with the regional states have done little to improve this situation. Issues of human rights and democratization have clearly dropped in priority in American foreign policy, though they are constantly mentioned in dealings with the region at all levels. In fact, the Central Asian gov- ernments have tried to exploit the war on terrorism to elimi- nate, neutralize and discredit their political opponents. The “consolidating autocracies,” as Freedom House calls some of the Central Asian states, risk further exacerbating social tensions and political instabil- ity by pushing opposition to the fringes of the political scene, playing into the hands of radical Islamic and other violent forces. In the past, western and American governments rightly accused Central Asian governments of unde- mocratic policies and human rights abuses, and threatened sanctions when matters grew worse. This policy produced little result, as it was very much a monologue rather than a dialogue. The Central Asian governments felt hectored and alienated by the West, and shrugged off Western criticism, which they felt failed to comprehend the very serious security threats in the region. In particular, the West’s failure to understand their suppression of Islamic radicalism estranged them. Since the events of Sept. 11, 2001, however, America (along with some European states) has changed its approach. The U.S. now holds a dialogue with countries like Uzbekistan, and as Uzbeks feel that the U.S. is listening to them, they are slowly becoming more receptive to influence and advice regarding reforms. This is an important lesson, as it shows that these countries are not impermeable to change; the process may be excruciatingly slow, but the right approach and attitude in dealing with these governments can pay off. Turkmenistan Since independence, Turkmenistan has remained aloof from developments in the rest of Central Asia. Its policy of “permanent neutrality” has enabled the country to stay out of any regional alliance or organi- zation; it has also meant that Turkmenistan has freely conducted relations with all neighboring states, including Iran, and the two opposing administrations F O C U S 22 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / A P R I L 2 0 0 3 Turkmenistan is at present the most problematic country in Central Asia, and the one most likely to see violent unrest or an implosion in the near term.