The Foreign Service Journal, April 2007

Russia’s WTO Bid: A Bumpy Road “President Vladimir Putin must understand that his country cannot enjoy partnership with the West ... as long as his policies in the European neighborhood, and at home, look less like those of a modern European statesman than of a czar.” So declared Ana Palacio, former foreign minister of Spain, and Daniel Twining, a consul- tant for the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in a 2006 Washing- ton Post op-ed that called attention to “Russia’s Shadow Empire.” Palacio and Twining were referring to the so-called frozen conflicts in southeastern Europe and the south Caucasus, where Russia exerts unoffi- cial power by supporting secessionist movements in neighboring states. In Georgia and Moldova, Russia has offi- cially endorsed the breakaway fac- tions by granting their members citi- zenship, passports and the right to vote in Russian elections in an effort to undermine the countries’ pro- Western governments. The resulting tensions have larger immediate ramifications. Georgia joined the World Trade Organization on June 14, 2000; Moldova joined one year later. Both countries are among the 150 WTO members who will decide on Russia’s accession to the organization. Moscow has placed embargoes on both countries, most noticeably on Georgian wine, a major export. Georgia initially supported Russia’s WTO bid in a 2004 bilateral trade agreement, but will withdraw its support if the terms of the agreement are flouted ( www.rferl.org/feat ures/features_Article.aspx?m=11 &y=2006&id=5DBEE932-A1C 2-4904-A210-C833DFE5379C ). This stage of the WTO process involves general talks with members, to iron out bilateral agreements, and Moscow hopes to have resolved its issues with Georgia and Moldova by July 2007 ( www.mosnews.com/ money/2006/11/19/russiauswto. shtml ). Georgia, too, has professed a desire for constructive dialogue. Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili has urged the U.S. and the European Union to work together to help resolve the frozen conflicts, and also requested the assistance of the U.N. and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Bezhuashvili says that, while determined to pre- serve its sovereignty, Georgia is “inter- ested in maximum productive cooper- ation with Russia” ( www.interfax. com/17/232904/Interview.aspx ). The bilateral trade agreement Russia concluded with the U.S. in November 2006 marks one of the final steps in its path to WTO mem- bership. On Feb. 21 Rep. Tom Lan- tos, D-Calif., chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, announ- ced during a visit to Moscow that he intends to push for lifting the Jackson- Vanik Amendment ( www.kommer sant.com/p-10163/Jackson-Van ik_end/). ). Regarded by some as a Cold War relic, the 1974 amendment limits trade with countries with poor track records on human rights, specif- ically with regard to emigration. Lifting the ban would be a significant step in forming normal trade relations with Russia. Commentators note, however, that Moscow’s new push to establish Russia as “an independent ‘pole’ in a multipolar world,” as Carnegie En- dowment scholar Andre Kuchins puts it, may get in the way ( www.carneg ieendowment.org/publications/ index.cfm?fa=view&id=18872&p rog=zru ). Kuchins argues that a con- gressional vote in 2007 on whether to grant Russia permanent normal trade relations status — which could deter- mine Russia’s WTO suitability — will be contentious, with the Kremlin’s ties to Iran one of the issues. 10 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / A P R I L 2 0 0 7 C YBERNOTES 50 Years Ago... It is well to realize that international problems do not have ready-made solutions like quiz programs or cross- word puzzles or mathematical riddles. I cannot help feeling that mass media communications tend to over- simplify such questions and treat them in terms of stereotypes and symbols. — From a speech by Indian Ambassador G.H. Mehta, “The Way Diplomacy Works,” before the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, FSJ , April 1957.