The Foreign Service Journal, April 2007

been populated according to the Soviet model, it would not have 650,000 residents, as it actually has today, but nine million! Conversely, if East Siberia and the Russian Far East had followed the American pattern, they would have barely one million residents combined instead of their current 15 million. Similarly erroneous is the argument that because Russia’s East is so thinly populated and China’s neigh- boring regions are densely populated, Russia risks being overrun by the Chinese. All evidence says that the nat- ural tendency is for economic activity to concentrate, not disperse. People are not like a fluid or a gas: they do not flow to fill a vacuum. The Chinese immigrants in Russia — who, in general, are far fewer than some of the alarmist estimates — follow the laws of economics, not physics. They are not attracted to empty spaces in Siberia. They are attracted to cities where they find Russians with whom they can trade. What to Do? How then might one formulate a sensible policy for Russia’s future development that adequately man- ages its resources, its space and its people? This is a broad and com- plex question. But the general principle is clear. Siberia and its resources need to be developed as efficiently as possible; e.g., to produce the greatest amount of oil, gas and other resources with the least possible financial and human costs. This is not the way things work today. In Russia’s cur- rent political economy, companies in the resource sec- tors are expected, even compelled, to keep costs high. High costs mean more orders for local industries and, in turn, more jobs. Even private companies have to play this game because they do not have secure property F O C U S A P R I L 2 0 0 7 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 37 Siberia and its resources need to be developed as efficiently as possible.