The Foreign Service Journal, April 2008

Turkish military establishment and its role in politics to justify their efforts to monopolize power. But they have not sought inspiration from Turkey to create a moderate Islamic democracy. Recently, Turkish-American relations have been volatile and stressed, reflecting Ankara’s anger with President George W. Bush for risking the destabilization of the Middle East through the invasion of Iraq, as well as U.S. failure to move against PKK sanctuaries in northern Iraq. To alleviate these strains, and reinforce Turkey’s Western orientation, the Bush administration should: • Broker serious cooperation with the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq against PKK bases there; • Encourage more foreign investment in Turkey by American multinational corporations; • Step up the education of Congress on the harm to U.S. interests from resolutions alleging genocide against the Armenians by the Ottoman Empire; and • Continue America’s strong support of Turkish entry to the European Union. Our focus should be on persuading opponents, particularly French President Nicolas Sarkozy, not to block further negotiations looking to eventual Turkish accession. At the same time, we should encourage the Turks to meet all E.U. human rights criteria. How far will the AK Party go in shading Ataturk’s con- cept of secularism? For the moment, at least, it is likely to rest on its laurels. Its leaders, after all, are moderates and lack any interest in restructuring Turkish democracy in basic ways. Hence, if the military maintains its disapprov- ing but distant posture, as appears quite likely, the gov- ernment will probably be able to accommodate the recent changes, which it can sell as expanding freedoms. The party’s popularity will in significant measure con- tinue to be built on its fostering of economic success. Its challenge will be to show that unlike all previous Turkish regimes, this one can keep advancing for more than two election cycles without sinking into corruption or losing momentum. Islamic practice itself will thus probably not be the determinant of the regime’s ultimate staying power. Good governance will. F O C U S 34 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / A P R I L 2 0 0 8