The Foreign Service Journal, April 2019

44 APRIL 2019 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL their private sectors and attracting the money and know-how of foreign investors. Some have simply imported the regulations of successful free-market economies such as Singapore. At the same time Venezuela, which is nearly bankrupt, must find funding frommore transparent sources than China and Russia. The World Bank, International Monetary Fund and other international institutions that Chavez spurned due to false pride or ideology are standing by, not only with loans but also with decades of experience in economic reform. This will be a delicate game, since at some point Venezuela will have to renegotiate the huge debts it has accumulated with Russia, China and others—much as Argentina has done repeatedly with its lenders. Hopefully, signs of change will start to reverse the brain and financial drain that has seen Venezuela’s most educated and well-off emigrate to find work or secure their savings. Many in Venezuela’s talented diaspora are eager to return home, and the wealthy, even those with ill-gotten gains, could be enticed to invest if the risk-return ratio becomes more reasonable. There are examples on all continents of countries whose diasporas have contributed significantly to turning around their econo- mies. They just need the chance. But—and this is a big but—it all depends on politics. Bad politics usually breeds bad economics, and Venezuela is a worst- case scenario. Corruption has enriched many among Venezu- ela’s interest groups—from its 2,000 generals and oligarchs, to prison and gang leaders, government-sponsored enforcers and food hoarders. They could well use Venezuela’s ample firearms to further increase its world-leading murder rate before giving up their fiefdoms. Often countries turn to strongmen for such drastic reforms— from the good and the bad to the ugly. Let’s hope that Venezuela —after suffering from a good leader who went bad, and from a bad leader who got ugly—will make the right choice. The coun- try has the human and natural resources to once again set the standard for Latin America. n Maduro continued Chavez’s discredited, state-run economic model, turning Venezuela into a textbook case of how not to run an economy.