The Foreign Service Journal, May 2004

ambiguous and incomplete indica- tions regarding what our foes are doing and planning. Understandably, the various com- ponents of the U.S. intelligence com- munity frequently disagree among themselves when it comes to assess- ing the data, but in general, the most unrealistic threat assessments tend to come from the Defense Intelligence Agency and the other military intelli- gence services. This is so for several reasons. First, military commanders understandably want to ensure that they do not inadvertently endanger their troops by underestimating the forces they face. Second, DOD bud- gets are directly related to threat pro- jections, while State, CIA and NSA budgets lack this seminal link. Third, DIA assessments frequently ignore political, economic and cultural fac- tors, and therefore misread both enemy intentions and capabilities. For example, the military threat the Soviet Union posed during the Cold War was never as serious as estimat- ed. And in the post-Cold War period, our experiences in the Balkans, Iraq and elsewhere have clearly demon- strated the gaps between the military threat projected by DOD and actual conditions on the ground. In the case of Iraq, Gen. Eric Shinseki and other combat-seasoned M A Y 2 0 0 4 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 57 Effective foreign policy in our democracy has always been a combination of realpolitik and moral idealism. korman communities arlington CORPORATE SUITES arlington, va 880 north pollard street 866.korman.4 : kormancommunities.com live better. brand new luxury high rise : fully appointed one, one bed- room dens and two bedroom corporate suites : state of the art fitness and business centers : heated outdoor lap pool : custom made mahogany furniture : fully equipped kitchens : luxury towels and linens : soft, firm or hypoallergenic pil- low selection : weekday club breakfast serving Starbucks ® Coffee : afternoon Tazo ® Tea : digital premium cable and high speed internet : 27” and 20” sony wega tv and dvd : sony cd stereo : free local phone : on-site management, maintenance, housekeeping : concierge services : walking distance to ballston common mall, ballston and virginia square metro stops