The Foreign Service Journal, May 2005

must look abroad to meet its growing needs. This will con- tribute to the tightening of the world market for some of the less plentiful commodities, such as oil, and, if not anticipat- ed, could cause some market volatility in the short term. This underscores the need for greater coordination among major governments to minimize volatility while meeting the needs of both developed and developing economies. In the long term, however, the global market will adjust to the increased demand of the developing economies, just as it continues to meet the larger and continually growing demand of the United States and other industrial countries. In the case of non-renewable fuels, for example, prices should be expected to rise fur- ther, leading to increased conservation efforts and the development of alternative fuel sources. The global community also needs to coordinate efforts to limit the impact of such growth on the environment. Integrating China into the Global Community Last but not least, we need to consider the impact of China’s rapid economic growth on its own society and its implications for the country’s relationship with the rest of the world. As noted earlier, the past 25 years of economic growth have led to the creation of a sizable and growing Chinese middle class that is learning to enjoy life beyond subsistence. This group is better educated and informed and increasingly connected with the global community, whether through the media or through personal and business travel or study abroad. These people will eventually become the polit- ical, business and social leaders of China and they have an increasing stake in global stability. As in the case of other recently industrialized Asian societies, this mid- dle class, which now enjoys vastly greater social and personal freedoms, will demand greater accountability on the part of their government in terms of the rule of law and, eventually, demand the right to elect their leaders. China’s economic growth has also tightly bound the country’s development to the rest of the world in terms of expanding trade and investment ties. There is no doubt that Deng Xiaoping’s decision in 1979 to move toward the mar- ket economy model and open up the country was responsible for creating the China we see today. With its accession to the WTO, the Chinese government has begun adopting global rules of trade and Chinese businesses are increasingly adopting global best practices in their operations. While there is still a substantial distance for China to go in this area, much progress has been made in terms of growing trans- parency and accountability. Another key point that should not be lost is that China is moving forward in this direction not only because of its international obligations and foreign pres- sure but, more importantly, because the Chinese do see it as being in their own interest. As they learn to do business in the global community, they have an increas- ing stake in a peaceful and stable world, whether it is as a market for their products or a source of imports and investments. At the same time, however, we need to acknowl- edge that a “rising China,” even if peaceful, is bound to be a nation more assertive of its own values and interests. We are already seeing this in various inter- national fora, whether economic or political. In some cases Beijing may not share our perspectives or inter- ests, so we and others may see its increasing assertive- ness as “disruptive.” More generally, Beijing’s growing power and influence could be seen as a challenge to status-quo powers in Asia (such as Japan) and around the world. Assuming China’s economic growth continues, the world’s challenge is to make room for it (as well as India and other developing countries), and to support its fur- ther integration into the global community to ensure that the required adjustments in the world order pro- mote stability rather than instability. The alternative of a nuclear-armed PRC beset by economic problems and domestic turmoil would be a far more difficult chal- lenge for the global community. ■ F O C U S M A Y 2 0 0 5 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 23 We need to acknowledge that a “rising China,” even if peaceful, is bound to be a China more assertive of its own values and interests.

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