The Foreign Service Journal, May 2005

The rebuke showed Beijing’s frus- tration over Hong Kong’s failure to live up to expectations as the first showcase of Deng Xiaoping’s “one country, two systems” idea. That prin- ciple granted Hong Kong (and two years later, the former Portuguese enclave of Macau) a high degree of autonomy. Specifically, it allowed the former British colony to maintain an independent Western-style judiciary and capitalist economy even after reverting to commu- nist China’s control in 1997. China has a lot at stake in the principle’s success in Hong Kong. It was to be a model that would be applied in Taiwan’s peaceful reunification with the mainland. But Hong Kong’s seven-year experience, marked by eco- nomic malaise, deadly disease outbreaks and mass protests, has been disappointing for both its residents and for Beijing. A Time of Troubles … To be fair, the misfortunes that befell Hong Kong were mostly beyond anyone’s control. Its economic difficulties, for instance, were triggered by the 1997 Asian financial crisis that led to the collapse of its property market and resulted in deflation. But many here say the situation could have been handled better if only Hong Kong had a more effective leader — someone decisive and strong, yet also sensitive to pub- lic opinion. Instead, Hong Kong had Tung Chee-hwa, a Shanghai-born billionaire businessman installed by Beijing. The new leader never connected with his constituents and was widely seen as too cozy with big business. Many residents cried foul when, in 2000, his government unilaterally granted the development of the Cyberport Technology Park without any competi- tive bidding to a son of Li Ka-shing, the territory’s rich- est man. The SARS outbreak in 2003 totally unmasked any semblance of competence on the part of Tung’s gov- ernment. Delayed quarantine measures caused the disease to spread in the community, killing nearly 200 people, and plunged the territory into a state of fear — crippling its economy. Adding to the people’s fury was the government’s introduction of an anti- subversion law at the behest of China. The law could have curtailed Hong Kong’s prized freedoms. Hong Kong residents marched in unprecedented numbers in July 2003 and again in July 2004 to demand Tung’s resigna- tion. They also called for the direct election of their next chief executive. The protesters achieved neither objective, but the demonstrations made clear to the PRC the degree of popular unhappiness with the way Hong Kong was being governed. While Tung’s resignation opens a new chapter for Hong Kong, it remains unclear whether it will bring changes in Hong Kong’s democratic future. The island’s residents will likely still not have any say in the selection of their next leader. Only the 800-member, largely pro-Beijing election committee has been grant- ed that privilege. Furthermore, Beijing has already ruled out direct municipal elections for Hong Kong in 2007, when Tung’s term would have expired. ... Followed by an Opportunity? Beijing distrusts Hong Kong’s ability to choose a leader who would be loyal to China. Hong Kong, on the other hand, is increasingly resentful of the PRC’s monopoly over determining who rules the territory. Under the terms of Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, known as the Basic Law, the chief executive runs the territory’s daily operations. Like a CEO, he is respon- sible for ensuring that all parts of the government are functioning effectively. He has wide latitude to hire and fire subordinates and to approve or reject laws, budgets and petitions. The Legislative Council acts as the chief executive’s balance, with the power to impeach him. (Its mem- bers also serve on the committee responsible for selecting the chief executive.) In its present composi- tion, the council is overwhelmingly pro-Beijing, thanks to a majority of appointed legislators; less than half of the council’s seats are filled by popular elections in a contest between the pan-democratic alliance and the F O C U S M A Y 2 0 0 5 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 55 China has a lot at stake in the success of Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” principle. Heda Bayron has reported and written on Asian affairs for VOA from its News Center in Hong Kong since 2000.