The Foreign Service Journal, May 2006

Given projected trends, we expect the Xers’ attrition rate to exceed 15 percent annually. We must conclude that, starting as early as 2010, there will likely not be enough specialists to move into management. Considering generational demographics, the future becomes bleaker. Given the five-year lag time to train a specialist to be a manager, State will keep falling farther behind. The problem is intensified by the size of the Generation X cohort, 15 percent smaller than any other since the end of World War II. This means there will be too few Generation Xers to replace retiring Baby Boomer managers generally, not just at State. Even if there were sufficient numbers of Generation X employees available, there are additional generational concerns that constrain their movement into manage- ment. A significant portion of the Generation X cohort demonstrates undesirable personal characteristics that limit their upward mobility. Compared to other gener- ations, Gen X has the highest levels of drug and alcohol abuse, homicide, suicide and teenage pregnancy. That less-than-stellar generational pedigree severely limits their advancement into management. Will the employ- ee have a stable enough personality to be effective in a high-pressure management role? Will there be prob- lems with the employee getting and maintaining a secu- rity clearance? Will he or she be able to function suc- cessfully on a team? If not, will the Gen Xer’s personal- ity cause other productive team members to depart? Recommendations The Department of State should target Foreign Service Generation X IRM specialists who are likely to remain with the organization and whose leadership char- acteristics will allow them to move into management within five years. To do this, Human Resources should look carefully at each Xer’s work history to confirm that the employee is not a “job hopper.” An earlier study evaluated three alternatives to meet the staffing gap — rehiring retired State IRM managers, recruiting IRM specialists with prior government management experi- ence and using remote contracting for IRM manage- ment, with the contractor based in the D.C. area. The analysis revealed that the department would be best served by recruiting more retired military officers with an IRM management background. They have already developed leadership skills and are accustomed to hier- archical organizations and chains of command, so are more likely to stay put. Initially, the new hires would be Baby Boomers, but over the next decade, the group’s members would grad- ually become Generation Xers. The study did identify two potential downsides to taking this route: Entry-level salaries will need to go up to attract such specialists, who are highly sought after; and newly hired military person- nel need at least two years to learn State’s culture. IRM should identify potential managers among its Generation X labor force and help them augment their people and leadership skills. This recommendation is two-pronged. First, it is important to identify those Generation X employees who have no interest in man- agement and take their presence into account in the bureau’s strategic planning. Once potential managers have been identified, they should be encouraged to take leadership and management courses at the Foreign Service Institute — recognizing that many Foreign Service managers of that generation (not just those working in IRM) need to develop aspects of their per- sonalities to become successful leaders. FSI should structure entry-level training to more effectively integrate Generation X IRM employees into the department’s culture. This is a two-way street. Teaching Baby Boomer managers appropriate ways to respond to Generation X employees’ concerns and atti- tudes could have important long-term benefits. In par- ticular, State’s Chief Information Officer should brief all ambassadors and other senior staff during their FSI- sponsored orientation. Second, new hires need to understand State’s culture more quickly. Perhaps more time needs to be set aside for IRM employees at FSI’s Overseas Briefing Center, encouraging them to partici- pate in courses and activities relevant to their future assignment. Reducing the time needed to become accli- mated to the department’s structure and operating style will free up valuable employee time that can be redi- rected to workplace issues. Given the job-hopping predisposition of employees under 40 years old, the department must begin collect- ing data so it can track attrition. Although different in many ways from their older Generation X colleagues, the newest generation of workers, the Millennials — those born since 1981 — are also job hoppers. Because employees under 40 years old — a group encompassing Generation X and Millennials — tend to switch employ- ers often, we can expect a higher level of employee attri- F O C U S 48 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A Y 2 0 0 6