The Foreign Service Journal, May 2007

Inflation is running at 1,700 per- cent, the highest in the world, and government coffers are nearly empty. Between 1998 and 2006, the econo- my shrank by 40 percent, with output down in all sectors. The cost of living for a family of six rose by 26.4 percent in one month alone (September to October 2006), according to the gov- ernment-funded Consumer Council of Zimbabwe. Moreover, an estimat- ed 18 percent of the population has HIV/AIDS. Many observers believe that Muga- be’s days as the head of state are num- bered (he has been in power since independence in 1980). According to the BBC’s online news service, the British government believes there are several scenarios for his exit: he could negotiate his departure, be pushed out by the ZANU-PF or forced out by a civil explosion. Britain and the U.S. are looking for ways to strengthen the economic sanctions they imposed in 2002 and 2003, respectively, in response to the land reform programMugabe launch- ed in 2000 and subsequent human rights violations. That move precipi- tated a collapse in foreign exchange earnings and helped trigger the cur- rent economic crisis ( www.cato.org/ pubs/edb/edb4.html ). The sanc- tions are widely credited with increas- ing pressure on Mugabe, as business- men in his party have felt the pinch. While there are differing views as to how events will unfold in Harare, there is no disagreement that the cri- sis is rapidly taking the country to a breaking point. The systematic gov- ernment campaign against opposition supporters — political rallies were banned in February — has now begun to affect ordinary Zimbab- weans, according to Human Rights Watch ( www.hrw.org/english/do cs/2007/03/28/zimbab15578.htm ). U.S. Ambassador Christopher Dell has been a particularly outspoken crit- ic of the Mugabe regime’s heavy- handed tactics. To monitor developments in Zimbabwe, go to www.allafrica.com or http://news.bbc.co.uk . In addi- tion to the ICG, mentioned above, the Council on Foreign Relations offers insights into current develop- ments as well as background material ( www.cfr.org ). The U.S. Institute for Peace also has useful information ( www.usip.org ) . — Susan Maitra, Senior Editor M A Y 2 0 0 7 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 11 C Y B E R N O T E S Q uite frankly, I think we have two significant problems in this country and in this government in terms of dealing with these kinds of situations, both in Iraq and Afghanistan. When I left government, USAID had 16,000 employees. It has 2,000 now. We used to have this kind of a deployable expeditionary capability in the government. … We don’t have that anymore. Now it’s more or less a contracting agency. Similarly, in terms of the strategic communications part of civic action, we basically dismantled USIA and that capability at the end of the Cold War. — Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, asked if he was satisfied with U.S. government support of the surge in Iraq, at the SECDEF Roundtable, March 22, www.defenselink.mil/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=39ll.htm?