The Foreign Service Journal, May 2007

M A Y 2 0 0 7 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 63 Toward a Sounder Strategy? Regime Change: U.S. Strategy Through the Prism of 9/11 Robert S. Litwak, Woodrow Wilson Center Press and The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2007, $25.00, paperback, 406 pages. R EVIEWED BY H ARRY C. B LANEY III Robert S. Litwak’s challenging new book, Regime Change: U.S. Strategy Through the Prism of 9/11 , is an in- depth study of the significant impact of that terrible day on America’s national security thinking and prac- tice. It also offers an extraordinary dissection of the implications of the Bush administration’s ideological prisms, and a practical guide to deal- ing with regime change, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. As that list of themes indicates, the book’s scope is broad and deep. Litwak set out to “focus on the trans- formation of U.S. national security policy after 9/11, specifically explor- ing how that new vision has shaped U.S. strategies toward those countries grouped under the ‘rogue state’ and ‘axis of evil’ rubrics.” In fact, Litwak goes well beyond that to offer alter- native analytical frameworks for ask- ing strategic questions, which the Bush administration clearly did not bother with in its haste to go to war with Iraq. The book is divided into two main parts. The first gives a broad analysis of perspectives and approaches relat- ing to the international order, the use of force and development of strategies toward rogue states. The second part features case studies of Iraq, Libya, Iran and North Korea, as well as a dis- cussion of the threat posed by non- state actors like al-Qaida. Litwak puts forward three main arguments. One describes the 9/11 prism in terms of “groupthink” and its implications. The second describes tensions over the objective of U.S. policy toward rogue states —behavior change versus regime change. His third theme is the nexus of prolifera- tion and terrorism, or the threat of mass-casualty attacks on the Ameri- can homeland by non-state actors with the help of a rogue state. A fascinating chapter titled “Strate- gies for a Change of Regime — or for Change Within a Regime?” delves into what used to be known as strate- gic policy planning. In looking at what Litwak calls a “target state,” he defines key concepts like proliferation dynamics, societal change and target- state analysis. He concludes the chap- ter by examining and developing an analytic framework of the risks and benefits of different approaches to dealing with rogue states. The second part of the book con- centrates on dealing with Iran. Lit- wak makes the point that “the WMD intelligence fiasco in Iraq ensures that many of the international community will view U.S. claims about Iran’s nuclear program with skepticism. In effect, we are paying a high price for our deceits. He concludes by taking on the key question of the nexus of proliferation and terrorism. Litwak deplores the Bush administration’s emphasis on WMD at the expense of attention to “potential attacks of equal lethality employing more readily obtainable conventional means.” He warns: “Hedging against the worst is critical- ly necessary but should not be done in lieu of, or at the expense of, prevent- ing the more likely.” The sad fact is that the interwoven problems of rogue states, terrorism and WMD were foreseen as far back as the 1970s, when this reviewer worked on those issues as staff direc- tor of a National Security Council task group. But then, too, the various fed- eral bureaucracies were unwilling to cooperate with each other, much less abandon their preconceived notions. The secondary consequences of the Iraq War were clearly not those the neocons or Bush administration hawks had envisioned. These issues not only reverberate today in our national debate, but may also inhibit positive engagement in the world — a double tragedy. Fortunately, this sensible book (which should be required reading for all Foreign Service personnel and U.S. policymakers) constitutes a good “prism” in its own right for examining the flaws of current U.S. policy, and offers a better framework for the future. Harry C. Blaney III, a retired Foreign Service officer, is a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy. B OOKS