The Foreign Service Journal, May 2008

sion, Michel’s spokesman John Clan- cy told the Associated Press on March 7, wants to see “the resumption of an open and constructive political dia- logue” with Cuban leaders. Cuban-E.U. relations went south in 2003, when Europe imposed diplo- matic sanctions in response to Cuba’s imprisonment of 75 dissidents and independent journalists accused of working with the U.S. to undermine Havana. The E.U. restored diplomat- ic relations in January 2005, but asked Cuba to release political prisoners and grant its citizens freedom of expres- sion. So far, 20 have been freed. Though the E.U.’s 27 governments were united in asking Raul Castro to restart regular bilateral talks last year, Spain has led the effort to improve relations, while Britain, the Czech Re- public, Poland and Sweden have been more guarded ( www.iht.com/bin/ printfriendly.php?id=10814049 ). In the U.S., following President Bush’s lead, officials say they will have to see what, if any, changes are in store for the Cuban people. Speaking in Rwanda on Feb. 19, Bush said that Castro’s departure “should be the beginning of a democratic transition,” and demanded that Cuba now hold free and fair elections for a new gov- ernment. So far, U.S. officials insist, no change in policy is warranted or to be expected. In response to press queries about an apparent divergence between American and European approaches to Cuba, State Department spokes- man Sean McCormack said: “There may be some tactical differences here and there. But I think on the whole that we are on the same page in terms of wanting to see the same kind of future for Cuba.” He explained that Sec. Rice had made it clear to Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos that Washington does not believe relations with the current Cuban gov- ernment would be worthwhile ( www. state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2008/feb/ 101059.htm ). Most independent experts agree, however, that Fidel’s formal with- drawal will make a difference ( http:// ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=4 1675 ). Julia Sweig, a Cuban special- ist at the Council of Foreign Rela- tions, predicts that Raul Castro is like- ly to promote reforms in agriculture and small business in ways designed to reduce the role of the state in the econ- omy—a process he had already begun during his nearly two years as acting president. In a July 2007 speech, he said it was absolutely essential to strengthen agricultural productivity and give farmers incentives to boost low production rates, adding that all necessary changes would be intro- duced to achieve those goals. In his first month as head of state, the new president has lifted restric- tions preventing Cubans from pur- chasing computers, microwave ovens, cell phones and other electronic appliances. Even more far-reaching, in a step away from the centralized distribution of agricultural inputs, farmers in Cuba can now buy their own supplies. Proponents of a change in U.S. policy toward Cuba view the change of leadership in Havana as a “superb opening,” in the words of Lawrence Wilkerson, chief of staff of former Secretary of State Colin Powell. “Raul Castro has said now three times that he’s interested in talking with the U.S. unconditionally to try to resolve all outstanding issues between the two countries,” William LeoGrande, a Cuba specialist at American Univer- sity and dean of its School of Govern- ment, told Inter Press Service ( http:// ipsnews.net/print.asp?idnews=4 1257 ). But analysts generally rule out a re-evaluation of policy until a new administration is in place in 2009. — Susan Brady Maitra, Senior Editor M A Y 2 0 0 8 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 13 C Y B E R N O T E S