The Foreign Service Journal, May 2012

events. It then assesses prospects for the core states of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Bahrain, as well as implica- tions for the region’s wild cards: Syria and Iran. Regional Issues The Obama administration has as- tutely concluded that the Arab Spring is not just a series of discrete events over a fewmonths, but a long process likely to span years or decades. It has also rightly insisted that each country involved has its own dy- namic, so Washington cannot follow a cookie-cutter ap- proach in response. That said, there is a need for a comprehensive look at the movement’s policy implications for 2013 and beyond; here are some key judgments. U.S. Power. The Arab Spring has shown the limits of American power in the Middle East. No longer does the United States have the prestige and resources to dominate Middle East affairs to the degree it has done ever since the British withdrew from east of Suez in 1971. In fact, neither the U.S. nor Europe has the financial re- sources needed to shape prospects in these countries. Ac- cordingly, significant investment will also have to come from elsewhere, particularly the Persian Gulf states and China — countries that do not share the Western interest in reinforcing democratic values. Nonetheless, Washington has great strengths it can bring to bear. Bolstered by the size of its economy, its his- torically unmatched capability to project power anywhere around the world, its soft power assets and ability to set the agenda, the United States will remain the preponderant outside power in the Middle East. The Rise of Others. WhileWashington can wield sub- stantial influence and leadership in the region, its involve- ment will increasingly become a collab- orative task. Over the past year or so, Qatar has shown the role that a wealthy if small state can play; Turkey has emerged as a stronger player and a key American ally in Middle Eastern diplo- macy; andmost of the Gulf Cooperation Council states have stepped into more prominent regional leadership roles. NATO’s operations in Libya have demonstrated that leveraging unique U.S. military capabilities can, in effect, be a force multiplier. The Arab Spring’s reinforcement of collaborative approaches politically, economically and mil- itarily will continue to put a premium on aligning China and Russia either in support of, or at least not in opposition to, what has to be done. Energy and the Persian Gulf States. The Saudis and other major oil producers have been able to compen- sate for the disruptions caused by Libyan unrest and play a cooperative role in the implementation of both trade and oil sanctions against Iran. Still, even those states face real lim- its on their ability to act. In the long term, world energy de- mand necessitates the development of both Iraqi and Iranian energy reserves— the second- and third-largest on the planet, respectively. In terms of Persian Gulf security, the U.S. role remains paramount. Though differences with the Saudis and other Gulf states over the uprisings in Bahrain and Egypt, in par- ticular, have caused tensions, unifying factors—such as the desire to maintain an orderly oil market and common in- terests vis-a-vis Iran, Yemen, Libya and Syria—are never- theless likely to prevail. Closer defense cooperation makes long-term sense among the Gulf Cooperation Council states. But the de- fault position of a hub-and-spoke security strategy in the Persian Gulf—which the U.S. Central Command calls “bi- lateral multilateralism” —may be the best we can do over the next several years. This approach gives the United States a crucial role in regional defense and has already facilitated notable progress toward coordinated air and naval defenses with regional powers. The next administration should build on this progress by allaying fears that defense budget cuts and U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan will impel Washington to isolate itself. Middle East Peace Negotiations. The aftermath of the Arab Spring has worsened prospects for an Israeli- 14 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A Y 2 0 1 2 F OCUS The Arab Spring has shown the limits of American power in the Middle East. Allen Keiswetter is a retired Senior Foreign Service officer who spent most of his career (1967-2003) working on Mid- dle Eastern affairs. A scholar at the Middle East Institute as well as a senior consultant at C&O Resources, he has taught at the National War College, National Defense In- telligence College and the University of Maryland. This article draws on a Scholars Paper titled “The Arab Spring: Implications for U.S. Policy and Interests,” published by the Middle East Institute in December 2011 (available at www.mei.edu/content/arab-spring-implications-us-pol icy- and-interests).