The Foreign Service Journal, May 2012

M A Y 2 0 1 2 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 15 Palestinian accord, and they seem unlikely to recover soon. The Is- raelis are apprehensive that the rel- atively stable region of the past couple of decades has shifted against them. They also find themselves more isolated than ever, and less in- clined to make the difficult choices that peace negotiations entail. For their part, the Palestinians have drawn new energy from the Arab Spring, but it is unclear how that can facilitate progress toward a negotiated settlement with Israel. Pales- tinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has played to populist sentiment as a means of guarding against conta- gion at home, but in the process he has alienated himself from Israel and the United States through his drive at the United Nations for Palestinian statehood. Hamas has become bifurcated because the previously Damascus-based element tied to Tehran seems to be mod- erating andmoving away from Iran- ian influence, while the Gazans are playing a separate game with Iran. The one bright spot is economic growth in the West Bank. For all these reasons, the Arab Spring’s legacy intensifies doubts about whether a two-state solution is still even possible. A strong U.S. role remains vital because no one else can pick up the pieces. Political Islam. Before the Arab Spring, Washington only had to convince these countries’ leaders to get what it wanted. Now, the need for the new governments to con- sider the popular will makes the diplomatic task of persua- sion much more complicated. Moreover, the democratic process is empowering Is- lamists, as shown by election returns throughout the region. As the new administration works to protect U.S. interests, it must exercise strategic patience while political order in F OCUS The movement is not just a series of discrete events over a few months, but a long process likely to span years or decades.