The Foreign Service Journal, May 2012

these countries sorts itself out. That is the price of our commitment to democracy. Terrorism. Recent develop- ments in the region have under- scored the bankruptcy of the Islamic extremist philosophy that sanctions violence as the only way to achieve societal change. Oriented toward universal values and rooted in the demand for jobs, justice and dignity, these nascent democratic move- ments are not far in spirit from our Declaration of Independence’s invocation of “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.” Nevertheless, the current upheavals offer opportunities, exemplified by the situation in Yemen, for Islamic terrorists to gain ground in the midst of chaos. As new leaders cope with the demands of governing, mounting frustrations over unfulfilled promises could provide fertile ground for a restyled terrorismwith an anti-American bent to take root. The new U.S. administration should consider whether de- velopments justify a more watchful and less operational pri- ority for counterterrorism. Factors Driving Further Change The paramount driver of the Arab Spring has been the mobilization of the masses, particularly young people who use social media and communications technology. At the same time, military and security forces and intervention by outside players also continue to be determining factors. For years, the former regimes of the Arab Spring states thwarted the development of alternative leadership. But now that technology has empowered citizens to challenge repressive security forces, it no longer takes established leaders to mobilize the masses — just savvy techies who have organizational skills, along with the presence of live media coverage, such as Al-Jazeera’s. In addition, the longevity of the leadership in all of the Arab Spring states has left no doubt as to who has been responsible for each country’s plight. The result has been revolutions from the street, with new political leadership struggling to emerge amid the protest and fighting, In all these countries, military and security forces have been key players. In the Egyptian and Tunisian cases, the military’s largely neutral role deprived the old regimes of an essential tool of suppression and thus sealed the fate of Hosni Mubarak and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, respectively. In Yemen, as well, sharply divided military and security forces helped establish the conditions for a nego- tiated settlement and the departure of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. But in Syria, their backing forms the core of President Bashar al- Assad’s base. The effects of outside involve- ment in Libya, Bahrain and Yemen suggest alternative models. In Libya, NATO and Arab forces committed to the protection of civilians took a broad view of their mission and provided the firepower and the technological and training assistance that enabled the Libyan-led resistance to succeed. A strongly worded United Nations Security Council resolu- tion, backed by the Arab League and Gulf Cooperation Council, conferred political legitimacy on outside inter- vention, which paved the way for regime change. In Bahrain, deployment of the GCC forces evinced the strong regional support, in particular from the Saudis, for the regime of King Hamad Al Khalifah, even though gov- ernment troops numbered only a couple of thousand and were largely deployed to remote areas to protect infra- structure. At the same time, Bahraini leaders have heeded to some extent calls for reform by the U.S. and other coun- tries to ameliorate grievances. Thus, at least in part because of outside intervention, the Bahraini approach blends re- form with coercive strength. In Yemen, the fragmentation of the military and security establishments, reflecting tribal loyalties and personal ani- mosities, has left room for a decisive mediation by the GCC, strongly supported by the U.S. and other outside powers. As the situations in these countries continue to unfold, the roles of the masses, the military and security establish- ments, as well as outside involvement, will continue to drive events. But they will be conjoined with another key factor: the success of political and economic reform. Patterns of Political and Economic Reform Despite similarities among the entrenched, repressive regimes and among the newly energized masses, the polit- ical and economic baselines of countries across the Arab world vary widely. What is obviously true is that the sweep- Technology has empowered citizens of these countries to challenge repressive security forces, when wielded by savvy techies with organizational skills. 16 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A Y 2 0 1 2 F OCUS