The Foreign Service Journal, May 2012

18 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A Y 2 0 1 2 likely continue to drive more protesters into the streets. And as in Egypt or Tunisia, Islamist parties will probably benefit from the more open political posture. Wild Cards: Syria and Iran In many ways, the Arab Spring ac- tually began in Tehran three years ago. The protests following the corrupt elections of June 2009 pioneered the use of social networking and information technology to or- ganize non-violent demonstrations. Regime changes in Iran or Syria would be real game changers that would reshape the Middle East from the eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf. Political geography puts both countries at the core of American interests and regional dynamics. Syria is central to the security of Israel, prospects for terrorism, the stability of its neighbors (Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon), and the fate of politi- cal Islam. And Iran is pivotal for the world energy market, the security of the Persian Gulf and Israel, and the success of nonproliferation regimes, as well as Sunni-Shia and Arab-Persian rivalries. The chances of near-term regime change appear much greater in Syria than in Iran, but in both cases any judgment would hinge on many un- known and still unknowable factors. For instance, envisioning the nature of a post-Alawite gov- ernment in Damascus is not easy. While many believe that Bashar al-Assad will not be in power when the Arab Spring celebrates its second anniversary, no one can foresee clearly how, or when, that desirable outcome will occur. In the meantime, there are real fears that the situation will de- scend into a regionalized conflict. The primary U.S. issue with Iran is its nuclear program. In President Barack Obama’s words, “loose talk of war” raises the prospect of yet another theater of military action for the United States. The potential of an Iranian break- through on acquiring nuclear weapons is sobering. An Unfolding Process The major gain to date from the Arab Spring is that more than a third of the 350 million Arabs living in the re- gion today are freer than they were when the movement took off in January 2011. But on its second anniversary that number could be higher — or lower. In the short term, states still in the process of democra- tizing can be among the most violent in the world as they work out their domestic political order and realign their re- lations with other states. Thus, continued regional turbu- lence is likely. But in the long term, a more democratic, prosperous and accountable Middle East offers the prospect of a region that enjoys better governance and re- spects human rights. That would indeed be a positive out- come for U.S. interests. Whatever its result, the Arab Spring has set in motion a realignment of the Middle East that could prove truly transformational. As that process unfolds, American inter- ests will not always align with each other or with those of these countries. So the next U.S. administration, whoever heads it, will have to, in the words of Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, “walk and chew gum at the same time” — just like this one. F OCUS In the Arab Spring countries themselves, the easy part may well prove to be the overthrow of the old regimes.