The Foreign Service Journal, May 2012

30 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A Y 2 0 1 2 cratic agenda stays on track, by continuing to take strong positions on such critical issues as freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and free and fair elections. The continuance of Ben Ali-era laws and bureaucracy, coupled with the relative weakness of the opposition, means that the United States and other international actors also have an impor- tant role to play in standing up for universal democratic values. As journalists such as Karoui and Ben Saida go on trial or are imprisoned, it is important to publicly voice concerns and stress the important role that a free press plays in protecting democracy. Maintaining continued, high-level contact with both the coalition government and the opposition parties is also vital, making clear that the United States is not playing fa- vorites, but that the door to dialogue is open to any party that respects nonviolence and respects and promotes dem- ocratic values. We must continue to make explicit that we support democracy, not just stability. Through organizations such as the National Demo- cratic Institute, the International Republican Institute and Freedom House, the United States can facilitate training for both the Tunisian election authority and Tunisian po- litical parties. Ennahda’s political dominance was won at the ballot box, reflecting its strong support throughout the country. However, a strong and viable opposition is also critical to the long-term stability of Tunisia’s democracy. Encouragingly, the country’s center-left parties are slowly forming coalitions, which will help them compete more effectively for political influence and assuage fears that sec- ular views are at risk. The United States should encourage Tunisia to set a date for parliamentary elections and begin preparations, such as voter registration. Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali has stated that the government expects elections to occur in 18 months. However, Ennahda’s leaders have also in- dicated that voting could be postponed if the work of the Constituent Assembly is not completed within that time frame. The Economy on Hold While understandable, this lack of clarity about par- liamentary elections fuels the suspicions of those Tunisians who believe Ennahda has ulterior motives. But more importantly, it increases the general sense of uncertainty in the country. Only half of eligible voters were registered for the Oc- tober constituent assembly elec- tions. Early preparations for the parliamentary elections would help engage a greater proportion of the population, increasing confidence in the process. While the October elections proceeded relatively smoothly, there were some irregularities. Reports that Ennahda provided money for weddings and offered sheep, and that the Progressive Democratic Party handed out sandwiches, may seem trivial, but they are still a hot topic. U.S. technical assistance to the Tunisian election authority and political parties could help avert similar in- cidents during the parliamentary elections, whenever they are held. Promoting Tunisian economic growth remains critical to ensuring the success of democracy. In 2011, gross do- mestic product contracted by nearly 2 percent, and fore- casts for 2012 remain pessimistic. Unemployment, already high prior to the revolution, has continued to grow and is currently estimated at 19 percent; but is estimated to be nearly 30 percent for university-educated youth. For their part, foreign and Tunisian investors are also in “wait and see” mode. Setting a clear timeline for the transition will help provide predictability and encourage investment. The country has requested significant inter- national funding to support economic development, and the Obama adminstration has already increased funding. Although a Tunisian “Marshall Plan” is not realistic in these years of lean budgets, the United States can signal its strong commitment to Tunis by considering a free trade agreement. The congressional mood may not be ready for a U.S.-Tunisia FTA at the moment, but because the negotiations would be a multiyear process, congres- sional sentiment could change. In-depth trade discus- sions with Tunisia would also provide a forum for promoting serious economic reform and would facilitate a strengthened economic partnership between our two countries. In short, America cannot resolve Tunisia’s identity cri- sis. But it can, and should, help the country address its very real social and economic challenges to keep its democracy on the path to success. F OCUS Setting a clear timeline for the transition will help provide predictability and encourage investment.