The Foreign Service Journal, May 2012

36 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A Y 2 0 1 2 tained, high-level engagement by U.S. government officials from all agencies and Congress, armed with coordinated talking points fo- cused on reform and joint re- sponses to regional challenges, would be essential. AFRICOM is ahead of the pack; civilian agen- cies need to step up, too. Sec. Clinton’s recent visit to three of the four Maghreb coun- tries, as already noted, was welcome; but it should not have taken so long for her to visit Algeria. Assistant sec- retaries and DASes from AF as well as NEA need to fol- low up with frequent visits. Inviting Maghrebi officials to Washington counts for something, but the old line about how you really can’t play if you don’t show up ap- plies in the Maghreb as much as anywhere else. The region does not need overarching initiatives, but we should press the members of the Arab Maghreb Union, which includes Mauritania, to revive that mori- bund organization. Regional integration would create the larger market in which promoting local entrepre- neurship with U.S. and other foreign partners makes sense. This would also complement and give new mean- ing to the North African Partnership for Economic Op- portunity that Washington launched prior to the Arab Spring. Instilling a sense of regional identity would not by it- self address the demands of Maghrebi youth for politi- cal change in their specific countries. But a more promising regional economy has a better chance of cre- ating new opportunities than the current framework that, like it or not, is dependent on limitations imposed at the national level. Campaigning for a more inte- grated Maghreb is also something we can easily do in conjunction with the European Union, which is still groping for a meaningful Mediterranean strategy after the implosion of its overly ambitious Union for the Mediterranean. There is one situation, however, that the U.S. should leave alone: the long-running and intractable Western Sahara conflict. Thanks to ongoing United Nations me- diation, nothing about this dispute currently demands immediate attention (apart, or course, from the suffering of tens of thousands of refugees living in the Algerian desert for more than 35 years). The issue will someday need to be resolved definitively. But while the people of the re- gion are focused on achieving profound change and stability, this is not that time. In Conclusion The stakes underlying a new framework and approach for dealing with the Maghreb should be pretty clear 15 months after the Arab Spring erupted in Tunisia’s agri- cultural heartland. Even before an unlicensed produce vendor set himself on fire with incredibly dramatic ef- fect, the socioeconomic and demographic conditions were in place for major change. The excruciating de- nouement of the Syrian crisis, ongoing turmoil in Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain, and the confrontation with Iran, however, will inevitably dominate U.S. policy attention toward the NEA region during this effervescent time. Yet 40 percent of the Arab world’s population, mostly under the age of 30, is located in the Maghreb. This means that area will continue to be a major setting for the generational transition playing out across the region. The aggravating effect of the Libyan crisis on the already fragile security situation in the Sahel, meanwhile, un- derscores the increased linkages between the Maghreb and West Africa that defy bureaucratic boundaries. Indeed, thanks to Libya, the Sahel is now entering a perfect storm. The revived Tuareg rebellion in north- ern Mali, the resultant military coup in that country and the proliferation of weapons pouring out of Libya have joined preexisting concerns about a flourishing (and originally Algerian) jihadist movement, indigenous crim- inal activity that may be increasingly linked to interna- tional drug trafficking, worsening trends in terms of refugees and trafficking persons, and growing food in- security throughout the region. Further, West Africa’s political, social and economic problems increasingly re- semble those in North Africa. Against this background, it is time for the U.S. to re- set its policies and approaches to all of northwest Africa, starting with a long-overdue reorganization at State and the White House to ensure the region gets the sustained and comprehensive attention that will generate more ef- fective policies to deal with its challenges and not merely its threats. F OCUS The good news is that the Maghreb does not need a Marshall Plan. But it does need sustained engagement and attention.