The Foreign Service Journal, May 2018

38 MAY 2018 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL than 90 percent of cases examined, violence begins in the pre- election stage. Evidence from the pre-election period in Afghani- stan, Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, Guyana, Kenya and Sierra Leone demonstrates that external scrutiny makes manipulation more costly and more difficult, which in turn deters the opposition from using violence as a means to affect elections. USAID’s long-term electoral assistance model, a component of overall development strategy, is vital to effecting policy change. A key strength of this approach is the goal of ending the need for electoral assistance itself by focusing on self-reliance. Through our partner organizations, USAID’s assistance aims to build the capacity of domestic institutions—election management bodies, the judiciary, police, political parties, civil society, the media and domestic election observation organizations—to carry out demo- cratic elections. At the same time, we recognize that sustainable outcomes take at least several peaceful and credible electoral cycles to establish themselves. Thus, withdrawal from electoral assistance needs to be gradual and well timed. 21st-Century Challenges to Free and Fair Elections Challenges to conducting free and fair elections in the developing world persist and include continued discrimination and de facto exclusion of women, youth, persons with disabili- ties, and ethnic and religious minorities; insecurity and violent conflicts; and corruption. In addition, the 21st century has seen other disturbing trends, including: The deteriorating quality of the electoral and political process . In cases where democracy is in decline, the ability of authoritar- ian and semi-authoritarian regimes to hold legal yet illegitimate elections has increased. Many authoritarian countries have good laws on the books and institutions that are efficient in imple- menting the political visions of governing elites. They follow the letter, but not the spirit of the law, creating “false” opposition groups and GONGOs (government-supported organizations) that mimic legitimate citizen observer groups. There is evidence that authoritarian regimes learn from each other. In 2018 Russia, Egypt and Venezuela have held, and Azer- baijan will hold, elections with predictable outcomes. There are countries in Africa, Latin America and the former Soviet Union where elected leaders refuse to let go of power and manipulate laws and procedures to stay for a third or fourth term, under- mining democracy. In other places, such as Libya, South Sudan and Afghanistan, the outcome may be unpredictable, but the high degree of internal conflict, insecurity and corruption threatens to undermine the whole enterprise. Issues regarding technology and social media. Online media have provided the tools and platforms for citizens to express their demands and mobilize civic and political movements. They have also helped increase scrutiny over governments and have improved observation methodologies and the speed of data processing. Governments have used biometrics to improve identification and voter registration, and have even implemented electronic transmission of results in the name of efficiency and integrity. However, the use of technology for elections has also raised a whole host of new issues, which can paradoxically undermine the integrity of the electoral process and voters’ trust. As of 2015, at least 25 countries in Africa, including Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, had included an electronic component in their electoral sys- tems. There were some successes, but also quite a few failures due to high upfront and recurring costs, procurement problems, increased vulnerability to fraud, insufficient domestic capacity to implement or maintain the new equipment, and voters’ lack of understanding of the new systems. Countries such as Ukraine experienced cyberattacks that interfered with their elections. With another important election in Ukraine scheduled for 2019, USAID, the donor community and civil society groups are focused on protecting the country’s electoral system against cyberattacks and countering Russian disinformation and propaganda. Finally, the news on cyberthreats and election interference in the United States and elsewhere has caused some observers to question the premise of election assistance itself. But there is a vast difference between election assistance—an integral compo- nent of international development—and election interference. Ken Wollack, NDI’s outgoing president, says this is like compar- ing a life-saving medicine to a deadly poison. USAID’s election assistance aims to make the process transparent and strengthen local institutions, while interference is about secrecy and The news on cyberthreats and election interference in the United States and elsewhere has caused some observers to question the premise of election assistance itself.