The Foreign Service Journal, June 2006

Intelligence Estimates: Fuzzy Math? “Our assessment is that the pros- pects of an Iranian weapon are still a number of years off, and probably into the next decade,” National Intel- ligence Director John Negroponte said recently. When asked about his faith in the estimate, however, Secre- tary of Defense Rumsfeld replied, “No, I’m not confident.” The varying estimates of Iran’s pro- gress toward a potential nuclear weapon point to the continuing tur- moil in the U.S. intelligence establish- ment since the 9/11 attacks highlight- ed systematic problems of coordina- tion and credibility. Now, four years later, another CIA chief has been let go, his named suc- cessor faces contentious nomination hearings and the turf war between civilian and military intelligence agen- cies continues unabated. Further, a GAO report released in March indi- cates that no progress has been made to improve the sharing of terrorism- related information that is critical to homeland security ( http://www.ga o. gov/new.items/d06385.pdf ). “It all points out the fact we need to do much better in rebuilding our intelligence community … that we give policy-makers the information that they need so that we can make better decisions,” states Peter Hoe- kstra, R-Mich., chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on In- telligence. To follow the ongoing fight over intelligence reform, the Council for Foreign Relations offers excellent online resources. Click on Intelligence under the “Must-Read” section of the Web site for links to news analysis and reports ( http://www.cfr.org ). And in the meantime, find out for yourself how close Iran is to a nuclear weapon with the Federation of American Scientists’ do-it-yourself tool for calculating how long it takes a country to produce enough enriched uranium to assemble one ( http:// fas.org/cgi-bin/ucountdown.pl ). Instructions for predicting Iran’s nuclear schedule (based on known data) are provided. Just plug in the numbers and the program tells how many years it will take to amass 50 kilograms of uranium. — Susan Maitra and Shawn Guan, Editorial Intern A Chance for Stability in Indonesia? Deadly clashes between Papuans and the Indonesian police, protests against an American mining company and Australia’s controversial granting of asylum to a group of Papuan refugees collectively brought the issue of autonomy for the easternmost province of Indonesia to the forefront in mid-April. According to a Council of Foreign Relations special report, there is now a unique window of opportunity to settle the last outstand- ing separatist conflict in Indonesia. “The next two years are a critical period in which the government and Papuans should embark on bold ini- tiatives toward peace, before the 2009 presidential and legislative elections begin looming on the horizon,” states Blair King, program manager for Asia at the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs and author of the report, “Peace in Papua: Widen- ing a Window of Opportunity” ( http :// www.cfr.org/publication/1044 2/ peace_in_papua.html?brea d crumb=default ). The change of leadership in Jakarta and the recent movement toward peace in Aceh province, after years of bitter struggle against the central government, help make this a possibility ( http://www. cfr.org/publication/8789/indone sia.html?breadcrumb=default ). Originally granted independence by the Dutch in 1962, Papua (former- ly Irian Jaya) was annexed by Indon- esia in 1969 in a referendum. To this day, the presence of the Indonesian government remains controversial in the resource-rich province. Indon- esian President Susilo Bambang Yud- hoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have allowed the formation of the Papuan People’s Assembly, an impor- tant component of the 2001 Law on Special Autonomy for Papua, and Papuans have high expectations that a comprehensive settlement can be achieved under their leadership. Recently, the Indonesian military increased its deployment in the region. In March, the Australian government granted temporary protection visas to 42 Papuans (out of a group of 43), causing a diplomatic row between Indonesia and Australia. Allegedly, the group of refugees includes some key Papuan independence activists, among them members of a separatist group. The refugees claim that the J U N E 2 0 0 6 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 11 C YBERNOTES