The Foreign Service Journal, June 2006

Such alarm would be particularly likely in the Arab Sunni states with sizable Shiite minorities, such as mili- tarily weaker Saudi Arabia, whose oil- producing region is populated by Shiites (and where Iran is already known to have backed terrorist out- rages intended to embarrass the rul- ing regime), or tiny, secular Bahrain, which hosts a U.S. and British naval base in the midst of its majority-Shiite population (over which Iran has his- torically claimed sovereignty even though this claim was dropped by the shah’s pre-revolutionary govern- ment). And where Saudi Arabia leads, most of the smaller states of the Arabian Peninsula tend to follow — backed in most instances by the politics of key secular Arab govern- ments such as those of Egypt, Algeria and Morocco, who also fear any spread of Iran’s radical fundamental- ism. In this context, we in the West, Arab leaders, and the Iranians them- selves should all ask whether the political liabilities of nuclear weapons possession might actually outweigh any benefits for Iran’s political ambi- tions in the region and more broadly in the world. This leads to a second reality. Is it conceivable that Iran, even armed with nuclear weapons, will ever risk its security — its very survival — in a serious confrontation with a nuclear- armed Israel for the benefit of its Sunni Arab neighbors? The world has noted the surprise and apprehen- sion with which the clerics who really rule Iran greet their president’s public threats. While some Israelis might worry that the existence of Iranian nuclear weapons would deter any possible recourse to nuclear weapons by Israel and could embolden neigh- boring Arab states to launch attacks on Israel with conventional weaponry, everyone knows that such attacks have only lost the Arabs more land in the past. Then there is the fact that J U N E 2 0 0 6 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 15 S P E A K I N G O U T A time of service…a time of need Help for Seniors May Be Just a Phone Call Away— Home Health Care Adult Day Care & Respite Care Prescription Drug Copayments Transportation to Medical Appointments Durable Medical Equipment For more information, please contact the SENIOR LIVING FOUNDATION OF THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE 1716 N Street, NW Washington, DC 20036-2902 Phone: (202) 887-8170 Fax: (202) 872-9320 E-Mail: info@SLFoundation.org W eb Site: www.SLFoundation.org The Senior Living Foundation may be able to help you or someone you know. Some examples of assistance are: SPONSORED BY THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE PROTECTIVE ASSOCIATION