The Foreign Service Journal, June 2006

pressure. Clearly, Iran is trying to dis- associate itself from the growing Sunni-Shia split, presumably in recog- nition of the looming danger to Iran’s regional relationships. This special Iranian-Palestinian relationship is bound to change if the Palestinians manage to strike a deal with the Israelis. It is obvious, there- fore, that renewed American efforts to help achieve such a deal will also help to counter such aspects of Iranian policy — which, one might suspect, currently trouble the Israelis at least as much as Iran’s purported nuclear threat, despite their public relations campaign on that issue. Finally, let us not underestimate the realists who almost certainly make the final decisions in Iran. For, unlike most other countries, under Iran’s constitution the head of state (President Ahmadinejad) is subordi- nate to the top clerical leadership of the nation, embodied at present in Imam Khomeni’s successor, Ayatol- lah Khamenei. Just as they showed a readiness to cooperate with the American-led coalition when it first invaded neighboring Afghanistan, and recently offered to discuss with Americans the post-election politics in Iraq, these clerics must be interested in what happens while the coalitions maintain a presence and/or influence in both those countries. They must also be keeping an eye on neighboring (Sunni) Pakistan, where the U.S. also has and should maintain influence. If and when Iran’s present advantages in Iraq and Palestine diminish or disap- pear altogether, it may regret its atti- tude toward the Great Satan. For all these reasons, realities on the ground — if recognized and acted upon by Washington and its allies — are in time likely to dictate a less abra- sive Iranian foreign policy. At the very least, if we have any confidence at all in our own intelligence estimates, we should enjoy a few years in which to shape our policies, taking due account of the factors discussed above. George B. Lambrakis, Ph.D., was a State Department Foreign Service officer from 1957 to 1985, following two years in Vietnam and Laos with USIA. His overseas postings included Tel Aviv, Beirut, Tehran and London, among many others; he also worked on Middle East affairs in New York City and Washington, D.C. He now heads the international relations and diplomacy program at Schiller Inter- national University in London. J U N E 2 0 0 6 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 17 S P E A K I N G O U T Home Suite Home The next time you’re going to be in DC for an extended stay, make yourself at home at Georgetown Suites. With our discounted monthly rates and large, comfortable suites, you’ll feel right at home. Plus we’re near the State Department. Call today! Georgetown Suites the fun place to stay in DC 1-800-348-7203 www.georgetownsuites.com sales@georgetownsuites.com