The Foreign Service Journal, June 2007

will be able to consolidate his hold on power and translate that into effective leadership for constructive ends remains to be seen. There is much at stake. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, with sub-Saharan Africa’s largest Muslim population, and it is also one of the world’s leading oil producers. At the same time, the country is hobbled by corruption, extensive poverty, an HIV/AIDS epidemic, poor infrastruc- ture and an underdeveloped economy almost entirely dependent on oil. The monopolization of political power by the country’s elite aggravates both poverty and instability. Due to outgoing President Oluse- gun Obasanjo’s use of state institu- tions on behalf of the ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party signifi- cantly expanded its grip on power in the elections. The PDP now controls three-quarters of the nation’s gover- norships and about two-thirds of the National Assembly seats. Yar’Adua has said that he will continue Oba- sanjo’s policy of free-market reforms. In addition, he plans to increase spending on national infrastructure, agriculture and an expansion of elec- tricity generation. To do this, the new president will have to boost national revenues, and that means unblocking oil production. That will force him to come to terms with militants in the delta region of the country that accounts for 95 percent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings. There, activists of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta are holding the country’s oil produc- tion for ransom. MEND kidnapped four more foreign oil workers and mounted new attacks on the pipelines in early May (the 58 kidnappings so far in 2007 are more than ocured in the whole of 2006). With tighter control over the fractious political scene and a willingness to consult with the opposi- tion, Yar’Adua may be in a better posi- tion to reach a settlement. This is not simply a domestic mat- ter. Roughly 20 percent of U.S. oil imports come from sub-Saharan Africa. Though the Bush administra- tion reportedly rejected a recent Nigerian government request to send Marines to the delta to protect vital oil facilities, the U.S. naval presence in the nearby Gulf of Guinea has in- creased significantly since 2004. In addition, Pres. Bush recently approv- ed the creation of a unified military command for Africa, AFRICOM, scheduled to be operational in 2008. But, as the International Crisis Group observes, the international community — which tends to see Nigeria as a regional police force and major oil producer — needs to better grasp the internal dynamics and intri- cacies of the Nigerian situation. Otherwise, there is a very real poten- tial for persistent violence to escalate, with major regional security implica- tions. To brush up on the background to these important issues, see the Council on Foreign Relations’ April report, “Nigeria: Elections and Con- tinuing Challenges,” available online at www.cfr.org . The International Crisis Group ( www.crisisgroup. org ) produced a series of detailed reports on Nigeria during 2006 and 2007 that are also very helpful, and the ICG’s broader Africa Program provides additional context. To follow day-to-day developments in Nigeria, www.allafrica.com is a good place to start. ■ — Susan Maitra, Senior Editor 14 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / J U N E 2 0 0 7 C Y B E R N O T E S W e need to win the battle for hearts and minds against extremists so we can have an end to the terrorism that has done so much damage. — Gordon Brown, British finance minister and incoming prime minister, May 11, http://www.time.com/time/quotes.