The Foreign Service Journal, June 2007

religiously informed social practices. The conservative camp has extensive economic and social roots, solid orga- nizational strength, and an army of foot soldiers (e.g., pen- sioners affiliated with charity foundations, Basij forces, etc). Meanwhile, the influence of the Revolutionary Guards in Iranian politics is bound to grow. The adjutants of the clerics, who have finished their apprenticeship in revolution, are now demanding recognition as the linch- pins of the Islamic Republic. The Upcoming Elections All political personalities and parties in Iran are already eyeing the three important upcoming rounds of elections: parliamentary voting in late 2008, presidential elections in early 2009, and city and village council elections in 2010. Because the institutions that will in one way or another oversee the conduct of the elections (the Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Intelligence and the Council of Guardians) are controlled by the conservatives, it is very probable that a high enough number of reformist candi- dates will be disqualified to prevent them from recaptur- ing control of the parliament. The prospects for electoral interference and irregular- ities are less likely in the 2009 presidential elections, because many of the potential leading candidates are established political heavyweights who cannot be barred. On the reformist side, former presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, and former speaker of parliament Mehdi Karroubi, are being mentioned as potential candidates. The conservative camp is likely to be represented by Pres. Ahmadinejad, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (the present mayor of Tehran) and Ali Larjani (the chief nuclear negotiator). Karroubi and Ghalibaf may prove to be the two candidates most capa- ble of unseating the incumbent. If that were to happen, Ahmadinejad would be the first post-revolutionary presi- dent who completed a full term in office but did not man- age to win re-election. Since its latest round of electoral defeats, the reformist camp has been attempting to become more mainstream F O C U S J U N E 2 0 0 7 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 29