The Foreign Service Journal, June 2007

against Iran would likely clarify any uncertainties about Hezbollah’s reach. Squeezing the Oil Pipeline Another concern is that Iran could attempt to use mines or small dhows armed with anti-ship weapons, or rigged for suicide attacks, to impede oil shipments in the Strait of Hor- muz, through which roughly 40 per- cent of the world’s oil flows. Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, director of the DIA, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2005 that “Iran can briefly close the Strait of Hormuz, relying on a layered strategy using predominately naval, air and some ground forces.” An Iranian attempt to close off the strait would be a risky gambit, both diplomatically and militarily. Doing so would invite wide opprobrium from the international community, because it would cause oil prices to skyrocket. Moreover, disruptions could affect Iran’s oil shipments, as well. As Secretary Rice has commented, “I think some- thing like 80 percent of Iran’s budget comes from oil revenue, and so obvi- ously it would be a very serious prob- lem for Iran if oil were disrupted on the market.” Although the actual figure is closer to 60 percent, the logic stands. Military shenanigans in the strait could also expose Iran’s limited naval capabilities to the vastly superior U.S. Navy. (When Iran attempted to cause mischief in the strait in 1988, during the “tanker war,” U.S. naval forces showed near-total dominance in the water, disabling six Iranian vessels and attacking two oil platforms used by Iran for intelligence monitoring.) Still, Iran has surely attempted to determine the F O C U S J U N E 2 0 0 7 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 35 Doubts that Tehran would close the Strait of Hormuz should not remove fears about the potential Iranian responses to an attack. SERVING THOSE WHO SERVE AMERICA S I NCE 1 9 7 1 2007 represents our 37 th year helping to maintain America’s fleet of vehicles throughout the world. All of us at D & M consider it an honor to have worked with all of you through these years. We are aware of the importance of your official and private vehicles, forklifts, generators, tools and equipment. We look forward to continuing this service in a professional manner. We are here to help, just ask! Gary Vlahov www.dmauto.com (516) 822-6662; FAX: (516) 822-5020; E-mail: info@dmauto.com